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How Do We Finish in Conference?


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Question: With this team, it seems anything is possible; so, what do you think the conference record will be?
5-13 - 0 (0%)
6-12 - 2 (3.9%)
7-11 - 15 (29.4%)
8-10 - 28 (54.9%)
9-9 - 3 (5.9%)
10-8 - 3 (5.9%)
Total Voters: 51

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Chicago Ram
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« on: February 16, 2017, 11:32:36 am »

Have at it - in looking at the schedule, I could see us being 9-9; can also see 6-12.
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Battering Ram
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« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2017, 12:30:47 pm »

We are currently in 10th place and we could finish anywhere between 8th and 14th.  Win on Saturday and the chances of being in the PIG become remote.
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« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2017, 12:52:05 pm »

Hoping we go 3-2 to finish at 8-10 which should keep us out of the PIG.
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« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2017, 01:16:03 pm »

We go 10-8 in A-10 play and finish the final 21 games 11-10, just like I said back in December.
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« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2017, 01:18:41 pm »

I am going out on a limb and saying with all due bias that we will end up 9-9 winning 4 out of our last 5.  This isn't so absurd as it seems.  

GW and SLU at home should be winnable and we may actually be favored in both.  Duquesne on the road should be winnable.  We just have to either upset Richmond at home or LaSalle on the road.  After last night anything is possible. especially with this coaching staff.
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« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2017, 03:24:37 pm »

Defeat SLU, and drop the following four. Hope to be incorrect.
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« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2017, 03:34:35 pm »

If we finish 5-0 or 4-1    could that be enough to push us into the 3rd or 4th place (top 4)  in A-10 standings  ?   and receive a double bye for the tournament.   id like to find out   lol    but  I realize we could head the other direction pretty quickly too.
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« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2017, 03:41:49 pm »

If we finish 5-0 or 4-1    could that be enough to push us into the 3rd or 4th place (top 4)  in A-10 standings  ?   and receive a double bye for the tournament.   id like to find out   lol    but  I realize we could head the other direction pretty quickly too.

Without checking individual team schedules, I would say it is mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely. It is unlikely enough that we'll finish 5-0, but even less likely that the help we need to get into 4th would also occur. There are 3 teams tied for the 4th spot right not at 8-5.
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2017, 03:56:16 pm »

I think we slip up in one home game and we split the road games, so 8 conference wins.
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« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2017, 04:08:53 pm »

The game we can most afford to lose is Richmond because we are most unlikely to be in a tiebreaker situation with them.  The game that helps us the most to win is LaSalle.  Our VCU win helps against the teams we play twice.  VCU's only other loss is to Davidson, so going to the 3rd tiebreaker with them we are currently in the driver's seat with next best win (URI) being better than theirs, though that could change of course.

I'm going to flip a coin before each tipoff and that would be as or more accurate than predicting what we'll do now.  We defy logic.
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2017, 05:43:20 pm »

I guessed 3-2.  Who knows which ones, but I actually think Richmond is winnable at home.  Duquesne put a hurting on UMass last night.  I could see a win but a blowout by 30?  They eked out wins against Fordham and Saint Louis and been severely blown out many times.

9-9 wouldn't be shocking at this point, though (or 10-8?).  They can play with anyone in the league.  And getting stuffed by Saint Joe's at home didn't mean much in the road rematch.  But doing it 5 games in a row (6 with RI in the bag) would be a bit much to expect.
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« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2017, 11:39:26 am »

If Fordham finished 8th or 9th right now it would look like Davidson would be the opponent, but Davidson has games @ Rhode Island and Richmond, and home against Dayton.  Even home against the Bonnies and @ Umass wouldn't be gimmes. 

If you just went by Kenpom and his home adjustment, Dayton and Rhode Island would be favorites.  Richmond by about 2.  The Bonnies would be 3.5 point dogs, UMass only a 1 point underdog at home.   If they go 2-3 they'd finish 8-10, but even 1-4 or worse is feasible.

I know this is all early and too many things can happen, but it would be awesome to get to 7th.  Then you are likely facing George Washington.    Although they are slight favorites in 4 of their remaining 5, but assuming we beat them.

Getting to 7th means finishing ahead of La Salle probably.  If we go 4-1 and finish 9-9, their schedule looks like: Saint Joe's at home (w), dogs at home versus Rhode Island (L) and slight dogs @ Umass (L) per sagarin.  Win at Saint Louis.  Lose to Fordham at home and they end up 9-9.  Split with Fordham.  Record against best team VCU 0-1.  Fordham beat VCU, 1-0.  Fordham gets the 7th seed.

Way ahead of myself.  Beat Saint Louis.  First things first.
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« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2017, 11:43:58 am »

If Fordham finished 8th or 9th right now it would look like Davidson would be the opponent, but Davidson has games @ Rhode Island and Richmond, and home against Dayton.  Even home against the Bonnies and @ Umass wouldn't be gimmes. 

If you just went by Kenpom and his home adjustment, Dayton and Rhode Island would be favorites.  Richmond by about 2.  The Bonnies would be 3.5 point dogs, UMass only a 1 point underdog at home.   If they go 2-3 they'd finish 8-10, but even 1-4 or worse is feasible.

I know this is all early and too many things can happen, but it would be awesome to get to 7th.  Then you are likely facing George Washington.    Although they are slight favorites in 4 of their remaining 5, but assuming we beat them.

Getting to 7th means finishing ahead of La Salle probably.  If we go 4-1 and finish 9-9, their schedule looks like: Saint Joe's at home (w), dogs at home versus Rhode Island (L) and slight dogs @ Umass (L) per sagarin.  Win at Saint Louis.  Lose to Fordham at home and they end up 9-9.  Split with Fordham.  Record against best team VCU 0-1.  Fordham beat VCU, 1-0.  Fordham gets the 7th seed.

Way ahead of myself.  Beat Saint Louis.  First things first.

I think Davidson is worst case scenario. I would rather play GW or Lasalle. Hell I would even rather play Bona, Mason, or even Richmond.
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« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2017, 12:20:17 pm »

Answer: Team is so unpredictable could be anywhere from last to first. And that makes us a very scary opponent.
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« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2017, 01:13:40 pm »

I think Davidson is worst case scenario. I would rather play GW or Lasalle. Hell I would even rather play Bona, Mason, or even Richmond.

Odds are fair that Davidson ends up 8-10, but even 7-11 or 6-12 are feasible.

The reason I'd like to finish 7th is I think GW is still likely to end up 10th, and yes, I'd rather face them.  Very unlikely to me that Lasalle finishes behind Davidson.  They own the tie break and Davidson has the harder schedule rest of way.

If we go 4-1 and beat La Salle, ending up 9 and 9, we are pretty likely to be 7th seed and playing GW.  If we end up 10th we likely get La Salle.  I'd rather be 7th and get GW.  Of course, it is conceivable Davidson falls to 10th, then you'd rather be 8 or 9 and get GW (likely 8 or 9 if Davidson is 10).

Of course if Davidson falls to 10th they may be worse than we think.  Their schedule is back-loaded.  Richmond and Rhodey on the road, Dayton at home, even Bonnies at home.  Tough sledding.
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« Reply #15 on: February 17, 2017, 03:10:38 pm »

I'm with Richie 68...9-9, with wins over SLU, Duquesne, Richmond & GWU and an O/T loss on the road to the Explorers.
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« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2017, 05:53:01 pm »

9-9
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2017, 03:23:23 pm »

I think avoiding the PIG is almost assured.  It looks pretty likely that the current bottom 4 are likely to stay there.  We're tied with GW, one game behind Davidson and 2 games behind LaSalle.  I doubt we catch either Mason or Bonas even though they are tied with LsSalle because both teams hold the tiebreaker against us.  That leaves four games to fight for the 7-10 seeding and it also means that we are likely to play these three other teams (LaSalle, Davidson, and GW) in our opening game.  7 will play 10 (winner will play the 2nd seed in the next round) and 8 will play 9 (winner plays the 1st seed in the next round).

Here are the schedules for the 7-10 teams:
LaSalle (8-6): URI, @UMass, @ SLU, Fordham
Davidson (7-7): @Richmond, Dayton, Bonnies, @URI
GW (6-8): UMass, Mason, @Fordham, Dayton
Fordham (6-8): @Duquesne, Richmond, GW, @LaSalle

Since we play 2 of the other three teams in this group, we hold our destiny on our own hands.  I think we can go 3-1 and finish 9-9 in the conference but its very likely that we will play one of the teams in the group so I'm not sure what difference it ultimately makes.  It's going to be a fun few weeks.
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2017, 04:37:49 pm »

Of the teams we may play I want Mason again.  Lasalle second because I think gianini is not good.  Team I don't want is Davidson skilled on offense well coached I know we beat them on the road but at this point we are likely not holding them under 65 and I do t see us getting to 66. With that said every time we think we ha e a handle on our team we don't. 
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« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2017, 05:23:40 pm »

Of the teams we may play I want Mason again.  Lasalle second because I think gianini is not good.  Team I don't want is Davidson skilled on offense well coached I know we beat them on the road but at this point we are likely not holding them under 65 and I do t see us getting to 66. With that said every time we think we ha e a handle on our team we don't. 

Unfortunately looking at the standings right now there is a very good chance we play Davidson although anything can happen. My gut tells me LaSalle hangs onto 7th place and Davidson and us end up 8 or 9th with GW in 10th. All speculative but just a hunch.
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2017, 05:50:32 pm »

I agree fortunately right now our team and staff does not care who we play.  Still 4 to go but there is an attitude of we will play anyone.  That is why they coach and play as we comment.
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2017, 07:14:56 pm »

Of the teams we may play I want Mason again.  Lasalle second because I think gianini is not good.  Team I don't want is Davidson skilled on offense well coached I know we beat them on the road but at this point we are likely not holding them under 65 and I do t see us getting to 66. With that said every time we think we ha e a handle on our team we don't. 

Mason is dangerous, IMO. Could see them knife their way into an A10 tournament final.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2017, 08:17:45 pm »

We played like sh*t on their homecoming and almost beat them. Livingston good player. I'll take them.
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« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2017, 08:37:20 pm »

Mason is dangerous, IMO. Could see them knife their way into an A10 tournament final.

Sign me up to play them again. Our statements are not mutually exclusive.  We match up well with them.
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« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2017, 10:00:03 pm »

With GW's road win vs. Duquesne today, here are the current A-10 standings:

TEAM   A-10   Pct.   Streak   Overall   Pct.   Streak

VCU   12 - 2   .857   W8   22 - 5   .815   W8
Dayton   12 - 2   .857   W6   21 - 5   .808   W6
Rhode Island   9 - 5   .643   W1   17 - 9   .654   W1
Richmond   9 - 5   .643   L2   15 - 11   .577   L2
George Mason   8 - 6   .571   L1   18 - 9   .667   L1
St. Bonaventure   8 - 6   .571   L1   16 - 10   .615   L1
La Salle   8 - 6   .571   W1   14 - 11   .560   W1
Davidson   7 - 7   .500   W2   14 - 11   .560   W2
George Washington   6 - 8   .429   W1   14 - 13   .519   W1
Fordham   6 - 8   .429   W2   12 - 15   .444   W2
Saint Louis   4 - 10   .286   L2   9 - 18   .333   L2
Massachusetts   3 - 11   .214   L2   13 - 14   .481   L2
Saint Joseph's   3 - 11   .214   L6   10 - 16   .385   L6
Duquesne   3 - 11   .214   L1   10 - 17   .370   L1
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« Reply #25 on: February 20, 2017, 05:52:25 pm »

re: the four teams below us, we are in good shape to avoid the PIG.  We are two games ahead of St Louis and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against them.  We are three games ahead of the other three teams and it would take a monumental collapse for any of them to pass us and force us into the PIG.  We hold the H2H tiebreaker with UMass so they are all but eliminated.  We are also three ahead of St Joe's and Duquesne but don't have the H@H tiebreaker against either team.  However, we will eliminate Duquesne if we beat them on Wednesday and  I'm not worried about St. Joes.  They have some tough games remaining and are in free fall. 

I don't think we are going to back our way into the 2nd night of the A-10 tournament.  This team wants to prove some things and has a great attitude going into the last 2 weeks so I think we play our way into the 2nd night.  That being said, here are the remaining games for teams 11-14.

St. Louis (4-10): @VCU, St Joe's, LaSalle, @ Richmond
UMass (3-11):  @GW, LaSalle, Richmond, and @ Bonnies
St. Joes (3-11): Bonnies, @ SLU, URI, @ Duq
Duquesne (3-11): Fordham, @ Bonnies, @ Mason, St Joe's
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« Reply #26 on: February 22, 2017, 10:45:13 am »

Let's say we get to 9-9…does Neubauer merit some A10 COY consideration?

Right now I guess Paulsen, Wade, and Archie would be the frontrunners. But man, 9-9 at Fordham with an at times depleted roster?
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« Reply #27 on: February 22, 2017, 11:13:36 am »

Let's say we get to 9-9…does Neubauer merit some A10 COY consideration?

Right now I guess Paulsen, Wade, and Archie would be the frontrunners. But man, 9-9 at Fordham with an at times depleted roster?

I think if we finish 9-9 Coach Neu should definitely get strong consideration.

The current standings:

TEAM   A-10   Pct.   Streak   Overall   Pct.   Streak
Dayton   13 - 2   .867   W7   22 - 5   .815   W7
VCU   12 - 2   .857   W8   22 - 5   .815   W8
Rhode Island   10 - 5   .667   W2   18 - 9   .667   W2
Richmond   10 - 5   .667   W1   16 - 11   .593   W1
St. Bonaventure   8 - 6   .571   L1   16 - 10   .615   L1
George Mason   8 - 7   .533   L2   18 - 10   .643   L2
La Salle   8 - 7   .533   L1   14 - 12   .538   L1
Davidson   7 - 8   .467   L1   14 - 12   .538   L1
George Washington   6 - 8   .429   W1   14 - 13   .519   W1
Fordham   6 - 8   .429   W2   12 - 15   .444   W2
Saint Louis   4 - 10   .286   L2   9 - 18   .333   L2
Massachusetts   3 - 11   .214   L2   13 - 14   .481   L2
Saint Joseph's   3 - 11   .214   L6   10 - 16   .385   L6
Duquesne   3 - 11   .214   L1   10 - 17   .370   L1
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« Reply #28 on: February 22, 2017, 11:35:31 am »

Let's say we get to 9-9…does Neubauer merit some A10 COY consideration?

Right now I guess Paulsen, Wade, and Archie would be the frontrunners. But man, 9-9 at Fordham with an at times depleted roster?
he's done a solid job and I'm optimistic about our future but 9-9 doesn't merit COY.
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« Reply #29 on: February 22, 2017, 11:42:21 am »

he's done a solid job and I'm optimistic about our future but 9-9 doesn't merit COY.

Much worse did for Nick in 1998-99.

I agree though. Would need to not lose again going into A10 tourney to get into consideration.
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