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Moving forward 2017-18


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Vinseiro2
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« Reply #30 on: March 10, 2017, 01:28:10 pm »

Hmmm. You don;t expect Chartouny, Sengfelder, AA, Havsa, Chuba, Slanina, or even Bunting or Pek to improve on offense. You think they are all what they are? I guess the guys should just relax until next year. No use putting work in since they can't get any better.

You said it yourself. Every year is year to year in CB. Things change rapidly including performance of returnees. I expect us to be much better on offense next year. Partly because our additions but more because guys improve. One area where I think we will be much better is with Ball security. We turned it over waaay too much this year. Increased mins from Havsa will help there.

   We need to replace Hawkins' team-leading 14 PPG and just about a tie at 4.9 RPG.  AA is a 5th year senior, how much better can he become?  CS will be a senior who may have regressed in certain areas this season, so that's also a possibility.  JC shot 42%, 38% from 3, was # 1/2 in steals nationwide, averaged over 4 RPG, how much more do you expect?  He can and should improve his A/T ratio.  I do not expect anything from Pekarek.  I think Bunting, Ohams, and Havsa are limited offensively.  I disagree completely with you - I do not think one of the things that changes rapidly is the performance of veteran returnees  what does change rapidly is the contribution from newcomers.  I think if we are much better offensively, it will be because of the newcomers.    
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« Reply #31 on: March 10, 2017, 01:32:04 pm »

I am pretty sure he is referring to Jeromy Rodriguez
Got my Northwest and Southwest mixed up!
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« Reply #32 on: March 10, 2017, 04:08:59 pm »

  We need to replace Hawkins' team-leading 14 PPG and just about a tie at 4.9 RPG.  AA is a 5th year senior, how much better can he become?  CS will be a senior who may have regressed in certain areas this season, so that's also a possibility.  JC shot 42%, 38% from 3, was # 1/2 in steals nationwide, averaged over 4 RPG, how much more do you expect?  He can and should improve his A/T ratio.  I do not expect anything from Pekarek.  I think Bunting, Ohams, and Havsa are limited offensively.  I disagree completely with you - I do not think one of the things that changes rapidly is the performance of veteran returnees  what does change rapidly is the contribution from newcomers.  I think if we are much better offensively, it will be because of the newcomers.    

What changes is usually 1st year guys becoming vets.  PER (player efficiency rating) is an imperfect stat; it rewards big men over smaller guys to an extent.  But it a good proxy for player improvement, cutting down TOs, improving shot selection or just shooting, etc.

Anderson as freshman was at 7.9.  This year 12.4 (slight regression from soph). 

Sengfelder was at 15.4.  he came in fully formed pretty much.  He slumped lat year to 13.7.  This year 15.7, so despite shooting worse from 3 an improvement from last year.  The change in the way he was used effected this, since his rebound rate fell from freshman year, when he was a low post player.

Bunting was at 10.8 last year, 15.6 this year.

Chartouny 18.2 last year, 19.6 this year.

What this suggests is that the biggest jump is from freshman to soph or junior.

Ohams PER was 7.0.  But in conference he was at 9.6, so his overall is propped up by his in conference PER, where he got the lion's share of his playing time.  he improved throughout the year.

Havsa 9.4 overall, 10.9 in conference, again overall brought up by the lion's share of PT being in conference, where he was better against stronger comp.

Slanina 14.9 overall, 15.3 in conference. 

Overall, the team's play improved through the year,  the same as it did last year, OOC wins notwithstanding.  Pekarek improved last year.  He was far worse this year but evidently hurt.

Rhoomes, Thomas and Severe all were much better in their last Fordham year than their first.  Thomas's per went from 12 to 18, up by 50% from frosh to senior. Rhoomes doubled from 13 to 26 over 4 years, and even made a big leap from junior to senior year.  This isn't unheard of at all. Brice Johnson did it last year, Buddy Hield, just to name well-know national players.  UNC also lost its 2 best players yet again won ACC, even with only small freshman contributions (mostly back-up center Tony Bradley). Their seniors and juniors improved.  Meeks (sr) went from 23.2 to 27 in PER.  Berry (jr) 19.3 to 21.1.  Pinson (jr) 14.1 to 17.8.  Justin Jackson (jr) 18.9 to 21.4 and ACC Player of the year.  Shot under 30% from 3 last year up to 38.2.  Big jumps for sophs Luke Maye 10.6 to 17.5.  Kenny Williams 8.4 to 13.1.  Now I'd say UNC is very good at coaching up players but this isn't all that unusual, and the Fordham examples above suggest typical, although overall level is different.

If Sengfelder shot 3s like his junior year, rebounded like his freshman year, and hit 2s like this year, well over 60%, his numbers would jump.  Not expecting all that, but just showing how a jump of some degree is feasible even for a senior.  Chartouny this year was dragged down by injuries a bit.  He certainly could stand to improve his decision making.  AA is a bit of an enigma.  He shot the 3 ball very well in conference this year and has immense talent physically, made some huge winning shots.  The ankle injury may have hampered him a bit, but more between the ears than anything.

The real big improvements will likely come from Ohams, Havsa and/or Slanina.

I don't think it takes as much as people think to improve.  Having a cohesive returning group improves the team.  Incoming talent is great, especially for after next year, and no doubt someone really good would help, and the team needs depth.  You hope for more health this year but someone always gets hurt.  I think an improvement in cutting down TOs will help a lot.  Small improvement in other areas.  The D is well on its way to elite status, as shown by the 3 game stretch including the Rhode Island win, clamping down on Davidson game 1, etc.  Ohams is already very good on that end as a freshman.   

I think I underestimated Hawkins.  He improved a lot as the season went on.  He wasn't hyper efficient because he had to get off shots when others on the team wouldn't or couldn't.  For a one year guy he really won me over and I'll hold him in high regard.  But even his points aren't all that hard to replace.  He wasn't a hyper efficient scorer and just spreading around his shots to the returnees alone would mostly balance out his departure. You hope Hicks adds something (although we'd be fairly guard heavy), and Slanina can come back healthy and build on this year.

So those are reasons to assume that the players will, for the most part, improve, and the team improve next year.  We are talking averages.  Not everything is linear.   
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« Reply #33 on: March 10, 2017, 04:56:43 pm »

What changes is usually 1st year guys becoming vets.  PER (player efficiency rating) is an imperfect stat; it rewards big men over smaller guys to an extent.  But it a good proxy for player improvement, cutting down TOs, improving shot selection or just shooting, etc.

Anderson as freshman was at 7.9.  This year 12.4 (slight regression from soph). 

Sengfelder was at 15.4.  he came in fully formed pretty much.  He slumped lat year to 13.7.  This year 15.7, so despite shooting worse from 3 an improvement from last year.  The change in the way he was used effected this, since his rebound rate fell from freshman year, when he was a low post player.

Bunting was at 10.8 last year, 15.6 this year.

Chartouny 18.2 last year, 19.6 this year.

What this suggests is that the biggest jump is from freshman to soph or junior.

Ohams PER was 7.0.  But in conference he was at 9.6, so his overall is propped up by his in conference PER, where he got the lion's share of his playing time.  he improved throughout the year.

Havsa 9.4 overall, 10.9 in conference, again overall brought up by the lion's share of PT being in conference, where he was better against stronger comp.

Slanina 14.9 overall, 15.3 in conference. 

Overall, the team's play improved through the year,  the same as it did last year, OOC wins notwithstanding.  Pekarek improved last year.  He was far worse this year but evidently hurt.

Rhoomes, Thomas and Severe all were much better in their last Fordham year than their first.  Thomas's per went from 12 to 18, up by 50% from frosh to senior. Rhoomes doubled from 13 to 26 over 4 years, and even made a big leap from junior to senior year.  This isn't unheard of at all. Brice Johnson did it last year, Buddy Hield, just to name well-know national players.  UNC also lost its 2 best players yet again won ACC, even with only small freshman contributions (mostly back-up center Tony Bradley). Their seniors and juniors improved.  Meeks (sr) went from 23.2 to 27 in PER.  Berry (jr) 19.3 to 21.1.  Pinson (jr) 14.1 to 17.8.  Justin Jackson (jr) 18.9 to 21.4 and ACC Player of the year.  Shot under 30% from 3 last year up to 38.2.  Big jumps for sophs Luke Maye 10.6 to 17.5.  Kenny Williams 8.4 to 13.1.  Now I'd say UNC is very good at coaching up players but this isn't all that unusual, and the Fordham examples above suggest typical, although overall level is different.

If Sengfelder shot 3s like his junior year, rebounded like his freshman year, and hit 2s like this year, well over 60%, his numbers would jump.  Not expecting all that, but just showing how a jump of some degree is feasible even for a senior.  Chartouny this year was dragged down by injuries a bit.  He certainly could stand to improve his decision making.  AA is a bit of an enigma.  He shot the 3 ball very well in conference this year and has immense talent physically, made some huge winning shots.  The ankle injury may have hampered him a bit, but more between the ears than anything.

The real big improvements will likely come from Ohams, Havsa and/or Slanina.

I don't think it takes as much as people think to improve.  Having a cohesive returning group improves the team.  Incoming talent is great, especially for after next year, and no doubt someone really good would help, and the team needs depth.  You hope for more health this year but someone always gets hurt.  I think an improvement in cutting down TOs will help a lot.  Small improvement in other areas.  The D is well on its way to elite status, as shown by the 3 game stretch including the Rhode Island win, clamping down on Davidson game 1, etc.  Ohams is already very good on that end as a freshman.   

I think I underestimated Hawkins.  He improved a lot as the season went on.  He wasn't hyper efficient because he had to get off shots when others on the team wouldn't or couldn't.  For a one year guy he really won me over and I'll hold him in high regard.  But even his points aren't all that hard to replace.  He wasn't a hyper efficient scorer and just spreading around his shots to the returnees alone would mostly balance out his departure. You hope Hicks adds something (although we'd be fairly guard heavy), and Slanina can come back healthy and build on this year.

So those are reasons to assume that the players will, for the most part, improve, and the team improve next year.  We are talking averages.  Not everything is linear.   

Not everything is based on mathematical formulas either. Some times the naked eye is the best measure of how one performs. The one measure you left out is 13-19 our record which was worse than last year. I am not trying to be a downer, in fact I said we got a lot more out of this group than anyone thought coming out of the OOC but to think there is going to be this big improvement next year because we have a lot of players coming back and the expectation is they will all improve is a recipe for failure. Some of the perennial leaders of the A10 will restack as always and some of the teams we beat this year that are normally higher up in the standings (St Joe's, UMass) will rebound as well. If we want to keep up with everyone we need more talent plain and simple.
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« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2017, 05:02:03 pm »

Not everything is based on mathematical formulas either. Some times the naked eye is the best measure of how one performs. The one measure you left out is 13-19 our record which was worse than last year. I am not trying to be a downer, in fact I said we got a lot more out of this group than anyone thought coming out of the OOC but to think there is going to be this big improvement next year because we have a lot of players coming back and the expectation is they will all improve is a recipe for failure. Some of the perennial leaders of the A10 will restack as always and some of the teams we beat this year that are normally higher up in the standings (St Joe's, UMass) will rebound as well. If we want to keep up with everyone we need more talent plain and simple.

I think everyone agrees that we need to add a few players.  We could have a nice foundation if our core is healthy and stays.  Get ready to hear about several hundred players in the country transferring within the next few weeks.  The musical chairs game that is college basketball is beginning.
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« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2017, 05:24:09 pm »

There is a big difference in speed running in a straight line like a sprinter as opposed to speed moving laterally and based on instinct and reflexes. Players that are quick and shifty can do that based on their physical traits. Same goes with jumping. You can strengthen legs but it does not mean they will jump any higher or get more rebounds. Some people possess better God given skills.
There are drills to improve, and coaches who specialize, in all of the above.
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« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2017, 05:35:15 pm »

Not everything is based on mathematical formulas either. Some times the naked eye is the best measure of how one performs. The one measure you left out is 13-19 our record which was worse than last year. I am not trying to be a downer, in fact I said we got a lot more out of this group than anyone thought coming out of the OOC but to think there is going to be this big improvement next year because we have a lot of players coming back and the expectation is they will all improve is a recipe for failure. Some of the perennial leaders of the A10 will restack as always and some of the teams we beat this year that are normally higher up in the standings (St Joe's, UMass) will rebound as well. If we want to keep up with everyone we need more talent plain and simple.

The metric isn't perfect but at least you are comparing apples to apples.  Players as a general rule improve as they gain experience.  They were actually out scored by more last year in conference but had one more win.  And I know overall they were better last year.  But they lost 2 of their best players and 3 of their top 6.  All 3 of whom, as the whole point of this exercise was meant to show, improved during their careers.  A lot.  Hence why they were easily better last year than in 2013, 14 or 15. 17-14 is better than 10-21. So is 13-19 despite significant turnover. Not sugar coating it.  13-19 is disappointing.  Still the team is better than it was and better than it was earlier this year.  And it doesn't take any higher analytics to suggest teams with returning vets usually improve in college ball.  The numbers just back up the adage.
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« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2017, 05:47:51 pm »

When the announcers stated in the GM game that CS attempted 42 FTs for the season....WHAT?!!! Heck, I get to he line more walking through the aisles at KOHL'S on a sale day!!  I know his countryman Dirk N. opts for the outside shot, but our CS certainly qualifies as a big on our team, and one with some really good low post moves.  He and JC get some good two man game things going (really nice chemistry at times) but seem to get away from that for long stretches.  Some consideration of how we deploy CS next year is in order.

As for those who are looking forward to the elite A-10 teams coming back to the rest of the pack, please note that these established winning programs, as they say, find a way to RELOAD rather than REBUILD!   
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« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2017, 06:01:55 pm »

Drunkle - as you point out, AA and CS regressed, so improvement is not a given.  In fact, some players may get worse.

More importantly, as RamFan78 notes, we finished 13-19.  2 of those wins came on last second heroics, or we'd be staring at a 20-loss season!  We need a lot more than marginal improvements - we need big steps to be taken by multiple players.
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« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2017, 06:05:53 pm »

Like Saint Joe's reloaded?

Davidson had a nice win today but they slumped a bit and lose more players.  Things change. Of course the team needs players. It's a constant grind. 
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« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2017, 06:12:25 pm »

Drunkle - as you point out, AA and CS regressed, so improvement is not a given.  In fact, some players may get worse.

More importantly, as RamFan78 notes, we finished 13-19.  2 of those wins came on last second heroics, or we'd be staring at a 20-loss season!  We need a lot more than marginal improvements - we need big steps to be taken by multiple players.

We also lost some of the most brutal games imaginable and could have had a winning record if we won those.  On games that went down to the very end I still say we lost more than we won.
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« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2017, 06:21:12 pm »

Please. Smith is a guard, and if he didn't want to put the work in and fight for playing time that's on him, not the coaches.

So what do you want Mr. Wooden?
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« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2017, 06:25:01 pm »

No idea who that is but I don't matter.  Question is does our staff know if this player?

I have been told that our staff knows of him and is not interested in him, but St. Bonnies has already offered him a full boat.  I guess we will see him at least twice next year.
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« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2017, 06:28:19 pm »

Thanks, but again, is our staff after him or is this just a suggestion?

From what I am told the answer is No but the rest of the A-10 is interested in him. 
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« Reply #44 on: March 10, 2017, 06:30:24 pm »

From what I am told the answer is No but the rest of the A-10 is interested in him. 

Thanks.  Who knows why we are not, but let's see who we add instead.
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« Reply #45 on: March 10, 2017, 06:41:17 pm »

From what I am told the answer is No but the rest of the A-10 is interested in him. 
w

I have been told the same. No interest. It's a shame
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« Reply #46 on: March 10, 2017, 06:45:41 pm »

w

I have been told the same. No interest. It's a shame

A lot of times when I'm told we are not interested in a guy, I wonder if part of that reason is because they are not interested in Fordham.
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« Reply #47 on: March 10, 2017, 11:20:28 pm »

A lot of times when I'm told we are not interested in a guy, I wonder if part of that reason is because they are not interested in Fordham.

100% incorrect!  The sad thing is that he is exactly what we need.

He will dominate us at St Bonnies, if he goes there.
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« Reply #48 on: March 10, 2017, 11:28:45 pm »

100% incorrect!  The sad thing is that he is exactly what we need.

He will dominate us at St Bonnies, if he goes there.

I agree, my daughter knows him well.  I am not convinced about our recruiting decisions.  Nothing last year, and a missed opportunity on this one.
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« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2017, 05:38:10 am »

Drunkle - as you point out, AA and CS regressed, so improvement is not a given.  In fact, some players may get worse.

More importantly, as RamFan78 notes, we finished 13-19.  2 of those wins came on last second heroics, or we'd be staring at a 20-loss season!  We need a lot more than marginal improvements - we need big steps to be taken by multiple players.

CS is better than he was as a freshman, slightly. The regression came last year.  His PER was lower because he wasn't used down low so his rebounding changed.  AA is also better than he was as a freshman.  Growth isn't always linear but the point is players improve from their first year at the level.  Some adapt right away, others take time.  Of course it is a cherry picked group.  The ones who get better play.  And sometimes they get better because they play.  And of course they need new players.  Eventually these guys will all leave.  If you want better players to come, show them you can win and develope players.
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« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2017, 06:04:38 am »

I agree, my daughter knows him well.  I am not convinced about our recruiting decisions.  Nothing last year, and a missed opportunity on this one.

Fordham offered Rodriguez when he was a high school senior in Sparta, NJ, apparently, recruiting class of 2015.  According to 247.  He also has offers from Wichita St., etc.  Seems like a decent juco but why all this inside baseball stuff if he or we isn't interested.  Even if you grab a top 100 recruit the other 99 go somewhere else. 
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« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2017, 08:15:10 am »

I agree, my daughter knows him well.  I am not convinced about our recruiting decisions.  Nothing last year, and a missed opportunity on this one.

How is that quest for an aopology from everyone who disagreed with your 10-8 prediction going? 

Fordham offered Rodriguez when he was a high school senior in Sparta, NJ, apparently, recruiting class of 2015.  According to 247.  He also has offers from Wichita St., etc.  Seems like a decent juco but why all this inside baseball stuff if he or we isn't interested.  Even if you grab a top 100 recruit the other 99 go somewhere else. 

It is a time honored tradition on this board to get obsessed with one player.

Let's look at recruiting under Neubauer

First year all committed to Neubauer in Spring

Pekarek helps get our first winning season in a decade and play in the post season. Hurt this year but net positive so far
Chartouny Pecora recruit who Neubauer convinced to come excellent player
Hardmett not good
Smith not good

Second year

Hawkins grad transfer good player A-10 level
Slanina injured a lot of the year but consensus is A-10 player
Havsa overseas recruit differing opinions now on his play so we will say he is a question mark
Hicks injured all year question mark
Tavares only early commit of the group some talent but may not be tough enough to play at this level question
Ohams everyone agrees A-10 level player

So first year he brings in 2 players who contribute one will start all 4 years. Two misses. That is solid on short notice.

Last year 6 players 3 are A-10 level players no doubt.  3 are question marks. That is solid for year 2 especially if Hicks and Havsa develop.  Think about if Hicks is a solid A-10 player and we have Slanina all year how this year may have been different.

The foundation is being built and it is getting done in the spring.  So we wait and see who comes in.

Time to dust off the golf clubs and let the staff do their job. 
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« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2017, 08:23:22 am »

I am not convinced about our recruiting decisions.  Nothing last year, and a missed opportunity on this one.
Huh?  Slanina, despite what I recall being the majority opinion on this board, demonstrated skill and potential very early on, and was playing a key role at the time of his injury.  Havsa - although I think some here are a little optimistic about his upside - was pushed into duty earlier than the coaching staff anticipated, but was an efficient player for us offensively.  He has to commit and develop on defense, but they are far from "nothing."
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« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2017, 08:26:59 am »

I didnt think Havsa was a player early but I also might have mixed him up with the other Turk. Regardless, he is clearly a good recruit.

Slanina is a big and he started to really progress before the injury. As we saw last year, there is a dearth of bigs in this conference and a good, not great, 6ft 11 guy, can often dominate in the A-10. Clearly has skills and his development was obvious. This guy can be a difference maker.

Hawkins was exactly what we needed. A quality 5th year guy who was a high level talent. He was a solid recruit and we need to rinse repeat this year.

Hicks is obvious an unknown.

Tavares will either be a real quality player next year ( like Mandel) or he will be anchored to the bench. All or nothing guy in my opinion but talent level is A-10.

This was a very strange year and very odd in evaluating the talent level. it was like a light switch turned on after the first half of the year. That to me means we have one heck of a good coaching staff. They made changes, they developed players and they got better.


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« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2017, 08:41:20 am »

Hardmett not good
Smith not good
I know we're all hoping for All Conference signings, or at least solid players who contribute and finish their careers here, but I think both of these guys were 3 star recruits who were signed at the last minute by Neubauer and his staff, equaling the total of 3 star recruits signed in 5 years by Neubauer's recruiting guru predecessor.  Those guys finished their careers elsewhere as well.  And don't forget that these guys practiced with the team last season, an upgrade from scrimmaging against Pecora's walk-ons I'm sure, and one of them did play some minutes for us.  I know Hardnett and Smith aren't poster boys for Fordham basketball, but under our less than ideal circumstances, I don't think they should be dismissed so easily as wasted scholarships, bad signings or "not good."
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« Reply #55 on: March 11, 2017, 08:45:25 am »

Smith and Hardnett were two high end recruits that we took a flyer on. It didnt work out but in the spring, it was worth the gamble.  High risk high reward situation.
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« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2017, 08:45:40 am »

I know we're all hoping for All Conference signings, or at least solid players who contribute and finish their careers here, but I think both of these guys were 3 star recruits who were signed at the last minute by Neubauer and his staff, equaling the total of 3 star recruits signed in 5 years by Neubauer's recruiting guru predecessor.  Those guys finished their careers elsewhere as well.  And don't forget that these guys practiced with the team last season, an upgrade from scrimmaging against Pecora's walk-ons I'm sure, and one of them did play some minutes for us.  I know Hardnett and Smith aren't poster boys for Fordham basketball, but under our less than ideal circumstances, I don't think they should be dismissed so easily as wasted scholarships, bad signings or "not good."

Agreed on the timing and players' ratings but I am focused on what they did when they got here.  Hardnett was in a cast most of the year and I am not sure he even practiced before leaving.  Fair point on Smith he played and practiced.  
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« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2017, 09:31:33 am »

Fordham offered Rodriguez when he was a high school senior in Sparta, NJ, apparently, recruiting class of 2015.  According to 247.  He also has offers from Wichita St., etc.  Seems like a decent juco but why all this inside baseball stuff if he or we isn't interested.  Even if you grab a top 100 recruit the other 99 go somewhere else. 
You, obviously, know zero about NCAA basketball.  Why would he be at JUCO when he could have had a full ride at Fordham 2 years ago?  I will leave that one to you to answer.  Also, TP made a lot of offers in his sunset year.....many of those "offers" were rejected by JN when he came on board.
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« Reply #58 on: March 11, 2017, 09:34:53 am »

You, obviously, know zero about NCAA basketball.  Why would he be at JUCO when he could have had a full ride at Fordham 2 years ago?  I will leave that one to you to answer.  Also, TP made a lot of offers in his sunset year.....many of those "offers" were rejected by JN when he came on board.


Because he wanted to go to a different conference, difference school, he may not have academically qualified for four year school or a 100 other reasons.  Not sure you know as much as you think if you need that explained to you.
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« Reply #59 on: March 11, 2017, 09:36:23 am »


It is a time honored tradition on this board to get obsessed with one player.


The foundation is being built and it is getting done in the spring.  So we wait and see who comes in.

Time to dust off the golf clubs and let the staff do their job. 

We had zero "muscle" and/or a bruiser on this team this year, and we are in dire need of a double/double power forward.  The foundation gets built that way.  The "Staff" is not doing their job on this opportunity.  I will wait and see who they bring in but if they don't bring in a guy like this who would come here then I rest my case.
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