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Season Predictions 2017-2018


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Question: 2017-2018 BB Season wins
Under 8 (oh well) - 2 (3.6%)
8-12     (wait till next year) - 8 (14.3%)
13-18   (there is hope) - 37 (66.1%)
19-25   (yes!) - 6 (10.7%)
over 25 (dream time) - 3 (5.4%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: Season Predictions 2017-2018  (Read 2226 times)
greenwood
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2017, 05:04:35 pm »

I like the spacing of Peter's points prediction but think we will average more than 70 ppg with improved %s. Despite still getting the steals I foresee some defense issues with regards to rebounding and handling mobile forwards.

My 4 big questions are shooting % (optimistic) Tavares (totally unsure) Havsa running point (high risk, very high reward) and frontcourt depth (pessimistic).  I would like to see Havsa get a long leash at point. Without seeing Evans and Hicks yet, he is the guy who can best optimize others' scoring, especially Chartouny, Ohams, and Slanina. Our biggest pros should be composite guard play and our style of play.  Biggest con is that in the A10 we will likely not have the most talented player in many games. Team concept will help win games you may not have business winning, but having that go to mismatch is a bigger difference maker late and close.

My rosiest glasses prediction is 8-5, 10-8.  It's not a stretch to think we finish anywhere from 4th to 14th though, there are many unproven teams.
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PeterMartin08
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« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2017, 06:56:13 pm »

I like the spacing of Peter's points prediction but think we will average more than 70 ppg with improved %s. Despite still getting the steals I foresee some defense issues with regards to rebounding and handling mobile forwards.

Thanks, Iím trying to be realistic. And yes, I think 70 is a good number.

Iím not buying Chubaís offense yet, but I think heíll be dynamic defensively.

Given a very playable OOC, Iím leaning towards a final mark that nears 15 W.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #32 on: October 29, 2017, 10:12:41 pm »

I will jump in (optimistically) with 8-4 OOC and 9-7 in conference for a 17-11 year.  I think we will do well in the Jamaica Classic. 

We do have a deep team, although only a handful of really big players (6' 8" and up) Chuba, Slanina and Bunting with Pekarek and Raut at 6' 7".  Speed, defense and shooting are more important than size.

Revising because I miscounted games.  8-4 OOC and 10-8 in conference for a 18-12 year, of course optimistic prediction.  Now going really overboard, 2 wins in A-10 tournament for 20-13.
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Rich93
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2017, 08:32:33 am »

Exhibition game Friday night this is as good time as any my season prediction:

7-5 OOC.  I think we avoid the pitfalls of last year but donít think we beat FSU WVU Harvard Rutgers.  That is 4 losses feels like one more out of ETU Tulane Manhattan. Get all three then 8-4. 

8-10 conference.  The early Richmond Duquesne home games are critical.  UMASS Mason @Duquesne games must win.  After that find three more at GW Home lasalle Davidson VCU good candidates.
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WINNING MATTERS
PeterMartin08
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2017, 08:48:35 am »

Exhibition game Friday night this is as good time as any my season prediction:

7-5 OOC.  I think we avoid the pitfalls of last year but donít think we beat FSU WVU Harvard Rutgers.  That is 4 losses feels like one more out of ETU Tulane Manhattan. Get all three then 8-4. 

8-10 conference.  The early Richmond Duquesne home games are critical.  UMASS Mason @Duquesne games must win.  After that find three more at GW Home lasalle Davidson VCU good candidates.

Right on.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
Ram 83
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2017, 09:01:30 am »

8-4 OOC, 9-9 A10, 17-13, with 2 tourney wins, 19-14.
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2017, 10:32:47 am »

6-6 OOC

7-11 A10

   Critical games - Harvard, Richmond, Duquesne (Rich, these last two may define the season).  Not sure how Richmond's Fore will return after a bad injury.  Duquesne has a new coach and like us, lost some punch and will feature younger faces.

   This is my pessimistic prediction, given the loss of our focal points in AA-JH-CS.  Tough to expect that we will find 3 equal replacements.  If we take good shots, limit our turnovers, and don't get killed on the glass every game, there are 2-5 more wins out there.
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PeterMartin08
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2017, 11:15:03 am »

I was initially two conference games short. Revised, I'm with Rich: OOC 7-5, 8-10 A10,

If trending in that direction - 2 A10 Tournament wins, a very optimistic 17-16 record, CIT/CBI appearance.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
Fordham Road
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« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2017, 12:01:16 pm »

It sort of feels a tad less optimistic than years past where even though there wasn't much reason to be bullish people were saying 16-18 wins, NIT possible, etc. People are saying there are a lot of unknowns unproven kids, wasn't that always the case? We haven't had a senior laden team that won for most of the 4 years in ... ever?   
Because of that and the talent I think we have I am going with 17 wins.  I also think Havsa comes in at a higher PPG than Peter had suggested.. call it 8?

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« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2017, 12:26:50 pm »

2017-18 Scoring:

Joseph Chartouny - 12.3
Tre Evans - 11.1
Prokop Slanina - 10.7
Will Tavares - 8.6
Chuba Ohams - 5.5
Perris Hicks - 5.2
Cavit Havsa - 4.4
David Pekarek - 3.8
Jesse Bunting - 3.4
Nemanja Zarkovic - 2.5


I think our success or failure this year rests with players six through nine on your list--Hicks, Havsa, Pekarek and Bunting, and maybe even Zarko. If all of them at least play up to the potential that we've seen from them or heard about--AND one or two of them breaks out--we could surprise to the upside. But if the "first five" have to carry most of the load, I can imagine the team running out of gas early...
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PeterMartin08
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« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2017, 02:58:42 pm »

FWIW, Objectively I would think a O/U for season total victories would be 11.5.

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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2017, 03:22:10 pm »

FWIW, Objectively I would think a O/U for season total victories would be 11.5.



Let me know if you find that line. Seriously let me know.
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PeterMartin08
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2017, 03:39:31 pm »

Let me know if you find that line. Seriously let me know.

It won't exist. Understand the public perception will have us far closer to the bottom than the middle.

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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #43 on: October 30, 2017, 06:53:18 pm »

How injured is Hicks? Does he have a return date? Am I missing something?
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« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2017, 07:05:14 pm »

How injured is Hicks? Does he have a return date? Am I missing something?

He played in the closed scrimmage yesterday from what I hear.  If he's out, it's a new development
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vinnys
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« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2017, 11:09:52 pm »

How injured is Hicks? Does he have a return date? Am I missing something?

I think any reference to Hicks injury was regarding last season, not currently, unless I am missing something..
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« Reply #46 on: October 31, 2017, 01:11:48 am »

1st JN season Richmond showed Rams Flaws Afro
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LXRF
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« Reply #47 on: October 31, 2017, 07:58:32 am »

It wouldnít be surprising this season if we see significant playing time from the newcomers on the team: Hicks, Evans and Raut.  It will allow more breathers for others so that we donít have the problem of a number of players with too many minutes game after game. 
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pjd
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« Reply #48 on: October 31, 2017, 10:34:45 am »

even with Flaws of JN Team in 1st season VS RICHMOND!!! I go with

10-2 OOC
10-8 A-10
20-10 into A-10 tourney

Go Fordham!!!
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ram64
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« Reply #49 on: October 31, 2017, 11:17:51 am »

OOC 7 W 5 L
A10  9 W 9 L
Tot 16 W 14 L
A10 tourney 1 W 1 L

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PeterMartin08
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« Reply #50 on: October 31, 2017, 11:27:00 am »

Just a reminder, try not to pay too much attention to lineups/scoring/results for scrimmages, exhibitions, etc...

We have a few guys a bit banged up, scrutinizing the lineup won't be helpful whatsoever.

Moreover, as we've seen in previous years, exhibition stats are beyond meaningless. Mandell Thomas comes to mind, complete non-factor in exhibition play (it was Zarkovic stealing the show)...Eric Paschall struggled...Travion Leonard looked like Shaq...

Bottom line, if Fordham pushes the ball at a break-neck pace against a collection of pick-up practice dummies, 100 points could/should be scored. Take it with a grain of salt. Hope for no serious injuries and lets get the season started.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #51 on: October 31, 2017, 11:47:49 am »

I think any reference to Hicks injury was regarding last season, not currently, unless I am missing something..

I think he said on podcast he missed some practices this year, but felt good when he got out there. Doesn't sound serious.
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« Reply #52 on: October 31, 2017, 12:12:24 pm »

Just a reminder, try not to pay too much attention to lineups/scoring/results for scrimmages, exhibitions, etc...

We have a few guys a bit banged up, scrutinizing the lineup won't be helpful whatsoever.


If it was mentioned before, I missed it.  Who's banged up?
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KPW
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« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2017, 12:50:50 pm »

6-6 OOC

7-11 A10

   Critical games - Harvard, Richmond, Duquesne (Rich, these last two may define the season).  Not sure how Richmond's Fore will return after a bad injury.  Duquesne has a new coach and like us, lost some punch and will feature younger faces.

   This is my pessimistic prediction, given the loss of our focal points in AA-JH-CS.  Tough to expect that we will find 3 equal replacements.  If we take good shots, limit our turnovers, and don't get killed on the glass every game, there are 2-5 more wins out there.

I am more in line with Vinserio here, especially replacing what Hawkins brought to the table when he settled in and played generally well over the last seven weeks of the season.

I am hesitant to be optimistic given our penchant for slow starts and underperformance in the OOC last year. Also, while we had some of the most significant conference wins in recent program history last year, when you look at who we beat in our A10 hot streak, the quality of most opponents was middling at best.

Headline: Shooting high volume 3s at sub-35% keeps offensive ratings in high 200 handle nationally; reliance on injury prone, foul prone players will frequently test the quality of our bench depth.

I am walking back on my optimism from last year, to avoid disappointment again - but remain hopeful on a surprise to the upside.

Devil's Advocate - 6-6 OOC; 6-12 A10; 1-1 A10 tournament - 13-19 overall.
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PeterMartin08
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« Reply #54 on: October 31, 2017, 02:22:09 pm »

If it was mentioned before, I missed it.  Who's banged up?

It's October 31st, plenty of day-to-day injuries that curb practice time. Nothing significant that I'm aware of. No Canty-type winter surprise.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #55 on: October 31, 2017, 04:05:17 pm »

If it was mentioned before, I missed it.  Who's banged up?

David PekŠrek suffered a concussion on Saturday, the day before the scrimmage. He's recovering.
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« Reply #56 on: October 31, 2017, 08:21:23 pm »

6-6 in OOC and 7-11 in the A-10 -- 13-17 in the regular season and 1-1 in the tournament.

I think I was conservative in the OOC so we could surprise to the upside but I was pretty realistic in my A-10 prediction and I would be surprised if we did better than 7-11 but I'd be delighted to be wrong.
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« Reply #57 on: October 31, 2017, 09:00:16 pm »

Biggest surprise from the Florida International scrimmage? Ivan Raut was in the starting five and had 12 points, 3 assists and 2 rebounds. Will be a key contributor this season.
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« Reply #58 on: November 01, 2017, 11:07:14 am »

Biggest surprise from the Florida International scrimmage? Ivan Raut was in the starting five and had 12 points, 3 assists and 2 rebounds. Will be a key contributor this season.

That would be a great, unexpected (at least from this outsider's standpoint) bonus for the program...
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« Reply #59 on: November 01, 2017, 11:50:39 am »

That would be a great, unexpected (at least from this outsider's standpoint) bonus for the program...

No question. Looking forward to the season.
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