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Fordham vs. Florida State (Montego Bay) - 11/17/17


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Author Topic: Fordham vs. Florida State (Montego Bay) - 11/17/17  (Read 2958 times)
PeterMartin08
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« on: November 13, 2017, 10:24:49 pm »

Enjoy LIU for the next twenty minutes,

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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball

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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2017, 12:10:16 am »

Pretty comprehensive overview of the 2017-18 Seminoles here:

https://howtheyplay.com/team-sports/2017-ACC-Basketball-Preview

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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2017, 12:27:58 am »

Sounds like we will have to play our very best A game.
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2017, 10:00:08 am »

Sounds like we will have to play our very best A game.

To avoid a blow out, yes.

fyi - the Seminoles will play George Washington today, 7pm on ESFC. Pretty good game-tape opportunity for the staff to take in.

FSU lost a lot of scoring (Bacon, Isaac, XRM) - two of which are in the league now, but there is plenty of talent to replace it, several shooters that will destroy a zone. M.J. Walker is a five-star (yes, 5) McDonalds All-American. Watch for him to take over tonight.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2017, 10:06:00 am »

This could be our toughest game of the year. They even have 2 7 footers to protect the basket. Only saving grace is a number of their top players are freshmen (so there is a slim chance they may have yet to adjust to the tempo of the college game). If we can keep it close and wear them down, we may have a shot at pulling it out. Depth may help us here but the whole team will have to play there best game on offense and defense, minimize the TOs and take advantage of all scoring opportunities. Our bench will probably get a lot of playing time if JN employs an aggressive defense so they will have to produce. They could be the key to a victory.
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2017, 10:32:03 am »

Pretty comprehensive overview of the 2017-18 Seminoles here:

https://howtheyplay.com/team-sports/2017-ACC-Basketball-Preview



I read that guy's ACC preview last couple of years.

Florida State, as usual, is huge, athletic and deep, although a lot of the time their 7'+ guys aren't exactly the most mobile.  They lost Rathan-Mayes, Bacon and Isaac, as well as Ojo and Jarquez Smith, but return plenty of bodies.  But I don't think C.J. Walker or Trent Forrest are particularly good as point guards.  They do have a couple of excellent shooters in PJ Savoy and Brian Angola-Rhodes.  MJ Walker is a top recruit, and Obiagu and Gray are fairly well thought of recruits, too.

They will go 11-12 deep, with two 7'-ers, Koumadje at 7'4" and Obiagu 7'.  Terrence Mann and Cofer are 2 older glue guys.  Hamilton I think is a decent coach, but more of the let them play variety, and he doesn't seem to get the most out of his teams.  They can get some big wins, lose some inexplicable games, and never go far in the NCAAs when they get there.  Last year and 2012 being years they had good teams that didn't do much in the tourney.  They won the ACC tournament in 2012 and were ranked 10th but lost to Cincy.  Last year they got up to #6 but got blown out by Xavier.  In 15 years under Hamilton they have been to one Sweet 16.

I'm not sure MJ Walker is going to step right out and be a go to scorer, and their new points may not be ready.  Their main thing is just going to be to wear you down with size, strength and speed.  They can crush a team, but also they can be vulnerable.  Last year they lost to Temple (kenpom 118), Pitt (79), Syracuse and Georgia Tech.  Among others.  And that was a really good team. Hofstra beat them in 2016.  That was a decent Hofstra team.  UMass (125), Northeaster and Mississippi St (159) all beat them in 2014-15, the last year before some big classes with Beasley and Bacon and then Isaac.  I think that may be about the level they will be at to start this year.

Last year they were 41st in turnovers per possession.  Pretty good, and for them very good.  But that was with Rathan-Mayes as a junior pg.  The year before they were 161st.  And in 2015 they were awful, 335th.  Rathan-Mayes wasn't a point coming out of high school, and he struggled at first in that area.  So they may be ripe for the picking, as it were.  Although we also don't want to get into an up and down with these guys.  It'll be interesting to see how Neubauer sets the D.

Their first game will be on the 14th against GW.  So we will get to see them against a familiar squad first.      
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2017, 10:34:39 am »

This could be our toughest game of the year. They even have 2 7 footers to protect the basket. Only saving grace is a number of their top players are freshmen (so there is a slim chance they may have yet to adjust to the tempo of the college game). If we can keep it close and wear them down, we may have a shot at pulling it out. Depth may help us here but the whole team will have to play there best game on offense and defense, minimize the TOs and take advantage of all scoring opportunities. Our bench will probably get a lot of playing time if JN employs an aggressive defense so they will have to produce. They could be the key to a victory.

The 7's are pro prospects too. In regards to the 'freshman' angle, I think you're really reaching. It's an entirely different level of athlete and player. Adjusting to the level of the college game? It'll look 140mph to Fordham, not Florida State...Agreed on bench need. If we're aggressive defensively, we'll need to go 10 deep and then some. Seminoles could put up 100 with that type of pace. 91-70 type score.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2017, 10:35:18 am »

I'm not sure MJ Walker is going to step right out and be a go to scorer, and their new points may not be ready.  

He was in their exhibition games, FWIW.
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2017, 10:42:23 am »

He was in their exhibition games, FWIW.

I'm sure they will go to him.  We'll see.  Isaac, bacon and Beasley all came right in as fairly big scorers (Isaac a little less since they had upper class guys).  But he is a 5 star so you may be right.  I don't mind him getting points, just hopefully inefficiently.  I'll take 7-19.

Allen, Angola-Rhodes and Savoy worry me, all at 40% plus from 3 last year, albeit not in starter minutes.

Hicks, Taveras, JC and Evans all ball-hawking like crazy and getting steals would be my hope.  Discombobulate the new points.  And Chuba, Bunting and Slanina all have to man up down low.
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2017, 10:44:32 am »

I read that guy's ACC preview last couple of years.

Florida State, as usual, is huge, athletic and deep, although a lot of the time their 7'+ guys aren't exactly the most mobile.  They lost Rathan-Mayes, Bacon and Isaac, as well as Ojo and Jarquez Smith, but return plenty of bodies.  But I don't think C.J. Walker or Trent Forrest are particularly good as point guards.  They do have a couple of excellent shooters in PJ Savoy and Brian Angola-Rhodes.  MJ Walker is a top recruit, and Obiagu and Gray are fairly well thought of recruits, too.

They will go 11-12 deep, with two 7'-ers, Koumadje at 7'4" and Obiagu 7'.  Terrence Mann and Cofer are 2 older glue guys.  Hamilton I think is a decent coach, but more of the let them play variety, and he doesn't seem to get the most out of his teams.  They can get some big wins, lose some inexplicable games, and never go far in the NCAAs when they get there.  Last year and 2012 being years they had good teams that didn't do much in the tourney.  They won the ACC tournament in 2012 and were ranked 10th but lost to Cincy.  Last year they got up to #6 but got blown out by Xavier.  In 15 years under Hamilton they have been to one Sweet 16.

I'm not sure MJ Walker is going to step right out and be a go to scorer, and their new points may not be ready.  Their main thing is just going to be to wear you down with size, strength and speed.  They can crush a team, but also they can be vulnerable.  Last year they lost to Temple (kenpom 118), Pitt (79), Syracuse and Georgia Tech.  Among others.  And that was a really good team. Hofstra beat them in 2016.  That was a decent Hofstra team.  UMass (125), Northeaster and Mississippi St (159) all beat them in 2014-15, the last year before some big classes with Beasley and Bacon and then Isaac.  I think that may be about the level they will be at to start this year.

Last year they were 41st in turnovers per possession.  Pretty good, and for them very good.  But that was with Rathan-Mayes as a junior pg.  The year before they were 161st.  And in 2015 they were awful, 335th.  Rathan-Mayes wasn't a point coming out of high school, and he struggled at first in that area.  So they may be ripe for the picking, as it were.  Although we also don't want to get into an up and down with these guys.  It'll be interesting to see how Neubauer sets the D.

Their first game will be on the 14th against GW.  So we will get to see them against a familiar squad first.      

So you're saying there's a chance?!
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« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2017, 10:49:10 am »

I'm sure they will go to him.  We'll see.  Isaac, bacon and Beasley all came right in as fairly big scorers (Isaac a little less since they had upper class guys).  But he is a 5 star so you may be right.  I don't mind him getting points, just hopefully inefficiently.  I'll take 7-19.

I hear you, I think we'd all take 7-19, I'm just not sure how we force enough bad shots. It's difficult to describe what a large gap in athleticism and ability it is. For a few minutes here and there, you have a fighting chance; but over 40 minutes its a mismatch. With Fordham's propensity to foul, I could see FSU at the line for 25-30 freebies.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2017, 12:24:09 pm »

I hear you, I think we'd all take 7-19, I'm just not sure how we force enough bad shots. It's difficult to describe what a large gap in athleticism and ability it is. For a few minutes here and there, you have a fighting chance; but over 40 minutes its a mismatch. With Fordham's propensity to foul, I could see FSU at the line for 25-30 freebies.

Beasley came in at #39 RSCI.  Bacon at #17, and they both came in scoring 20+ in their first games, shooting over 50% (not against a great d though).  Walker comes in at #24.

But I don't want to show them too much awe.  Last year they had 2 guys who came in more highly rated than Walker, who is actually a consensus 4 star per 247 composite (they have him # 28, slightly different composite rank than RSCI).  Isaac was #8.  So he and bacon.  Plus Rathan-Mayes was also top 50.  Obiagu, another freshman, is #67.  Gray 157.  Forrest and CJ walker were 70 and 113 last year.  Mann was 95 3 years ago.  Koumadje was 334.  Angoloa-Rhodes a juco.

This is really only slightly better than Rhode Island kids ranks, and they were generally older last year.  Matthews was 247 107.  Hassan martin was deeper 100s, but they were their best players.  Jared Terrell #68.  Kuran Iverson was RSCI # 30 in 2013.  Stanford Robinson was #61. And we were able to run with them last year with guys out.
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2017, 12:54:40 pm »

So you're saying there's a chance?!

I think so.  Georgia Tech was one of the best D teams last year (Kenpom #6) and held them to .324 eFG%.  And that was a better FSU team (#31 O and D). Now, we were #82.  And held Rhode Island (#57 O, # 30 D) to .321 eFG%.     

Georgia tech beat them on the boards last year.  So did Temple, which surprisingly won by just out-shooting them.  Syracuse was not a good defensive team last year (per Kenpom worse than Fordam, at #119), but they likewise put a hurting on FSU's offense, in what was a back to back pair of losses with the georgia tech loss.

We'll need Prokop to turn into Ben Lammers, Georgia tech's shot-blocking center.  And yeah, not foul out.  Another thing FSU does is foul a lot.  They have a lot of bodies and thus fouls to give, but Temple also beat them at the line last year.

We'll need Slanina and Raut making 3s and roaming outside to draw their bigs away from the rim.  Not sure how many layups we will get anyway.

JC doing his thing, Hicks and Evans hawking their guards like crazy.  Even if not as many TOs (and they are prone), not letting them get into sets and pounding us down low.  Watch their 3 point shooters, although they will get theirs.

Tavares can run with these guys.  Hopefully Chuba shows up, and good JC.

But no kidding, it would take a full game of peak play and them being off to do it. 
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2017, 01:20:17 pm »

T-Rank has it 75-64 Florida State.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Florida+St.

"Fri 11-17   N      205   Fordham   Florida St. -10.9, 75-64 (83%)"  T-Rank has FSU at #64.  Kenpom has them #55.  of course that's a bunch of computer guesswork, since FSU hasn't even played.
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2017, 02:33:44 pm »

T-Rank has it 75-64 Florida State.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Florida+St.

"Fri 11-17   N      205   Fordham   Florida St. -10.9, 75-64 (83%)"  T-Rank has FSU at #64.  Kenpom has them #55.  of course that's a bunch of computer guesswork, since FSU hasn't even played.

Very interesting. 75-64 reads as a backdoor cover? I'm going to stick with the 90-71. I don't really care at all about the computer guess work that you mentioned. I think it's a spot where you have a lot of players flying around, a lot of errors. I could see us falling behind by 18 and going bucket for bucket for much of the 2nd half with the FSU 2nd team.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2017, 09:18:23 pm »

FSU beats GW by 20 87-67.  GW shot the ball poorly FSU had balanced attack. For our game, Pomeroy predicts a 12 point loss 76-64.  Big step up in competition for us. 
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« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2017, 09:23:03 am »

Seminoles  88    Rams  66

Hoping for better but Chuba has come out of the gate very slowly and we will need the bigs on floor and contributing.

Stay away from the meat patties.
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2017, 12:30:12 pm »

Consulted with a number of Oracles and their considered prophetic prediction was a Fordham loss.... big time..
                       58-96.....
Hopefully they will be proved wrong... Evil
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« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2017, 12:51:08 pm »

Seminoles  88    Rams  66

Hoping for better but Chuba has come out of the gate very slowly and we will need the bigs on floor and contributing.

Stay away from the meat patties.

Beef Patties, designer sunglasses, and anything at all that looks like Oregano.
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« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2017, 01:12:09 pm »

Being one of the top 2-3 games on the entire slate, whichever Ram(s) shows out as delivering in the moment and not shirking from the spotlight becomes our obvious go-to guy(s) from here on.  I'm especially rooting for Tavares and Chartouny to rise up, but whoever wants it is fine by me.  If you fail to compete in this one I will have a hard time trusting you in the A10 games.
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« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2017, 02:02:17 pm »

Being one of the top 2-3 games on the entire slate, whichever Ram(s) shows out as delivering in the moment and not shirking from the spotlight becomes our obvious go-to guy(s) from here on.  I'm especially rooting for Tavares and Chartouny to rise up, but whoever wants it is fine by me.  If you fail to compete in this one I will have a hard time trusting you in the A10 games.

I like that. I've been bullish on Evans (maybe I'm a bit early) but I'd count on him and Hicks to be with it in this spot. Lets go.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2017, 03:05:12 pm »

If Rams win 1 of 2 this weekend and wind up at 2-2 for the year, I am guessing that the team would be where most posters expected them to be prior to the season opener.  More than 2 wins would be nice, but with the turnover and new faces I would accept a 2-2 start.
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« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2017, 03:07:21 pm »

Up to the challenge?  Let's see.  A repeat performance by Raut, the man from Montenegro, or as I like to call him, the Balkan Bomber, and the reappearance of the Havsa who did some serious A-10 damage last season would be great for the cause.  JC still seems a little jittery.  BTY if Raut is really what we saw (or close to it) vs LIU, he will be the must see college player in our area and folks will travel to see him.  That type of sharp shooter, who seemed to need very little space to get off his quick release shot, could have played almost anyplace in the country.  When I go to games at Iona, Manhattan and St. John's there always seems to be a lot of local hoops fans who show up.  This, for reasons that have been cited on this board for years, has not been the case at Fordham.  Maybe this could be the year we attract such fans to come and see a special player(s), a good brand of ball and enjoy the unique experience of taking in a game at the historic RHG. Go Rams!
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« Reply #23 on: November 15, 2017, 06:05:27 pm »

So scrap what I said, the outside shooting was ok, but it was mostly the bigger vets, Mann, Cofer, and Koumadje doing damage for FSU.  7'4". Slanina will have his hands full.  Only 4 FTs. And 16 TOs.  GW getting used to life without Cavanagh.



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« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2017, 07:47:54 pm »

So scrap what I said, the outside shooting was ok, but it was mostly the bigger vets, Mann, Cofer, and Koumadje doing damage for FSU.  7'4". Slanina will have his hands full.  Only 4 FTs. And 16 TOs.  GW getting used to life without Cavanagh.





Cavanaugh is getting run with Atlanta very underrated player.
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« Reply #25 on: November 15, 2017, 08:57:12 pm »

Cavanaugh is getting run with Atlanta very underrated player.

He's 5/6 on NBA three pointers!! Maybe CS was right to foul him Angry
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« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2017, 09:03:29 am »

Cavanaugh is getting run with Atlanta very underrated player.

Yes I think they will struggle this year. I also think we will see the impact of no Lonergan this year.

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« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2017, 11:37:22 am »

Sagarin has our Rams as 19 point dogs.
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« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2017, 11:44:56 am »

some of my fondest memories of Penders teams included close loss to Joe Klein, Alvin Robertson team - Arkansas in Great Alaska Shootout.  Fordham stayed with this team 38 minutes or so and was play or two from pulling it off.

We need all facets of offense defense working to make a ball game of it.

Go Fordham!!
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« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2017, 12:24:03 pm »

For everyone who wants to see us raining down 3-pt bombs (and I'm absolutely fine with that, if they fall), this is the game to do it...
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