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Fordham vs. Tulane (Montego Bay) - 11/19/17


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Author Topic: Fordham vs. Tulane (Montego Bay) - 11/19/17  (Read 2494 times)
Rich93
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« Reply #150 on: November 21, 2017, 12:55:36 pm »

Your definition of meaningful is different than mine which is ok but that qualifier makes your point useless because it is subjective.  I think the improvement was meaningful.  I donít recall that being your point in the past but that is neither here nor there.

Raut 43% right now.  So we might have a 40% three point shooter.  Amazingly Slanina 39% right now.  Hicks is shooting 33% that will go up.  We donít know what Evans is yet.  Tavares shot 33 from 3 last year my bet he shoots high 30s this year.  4 games in you canít declare these guys can or canít shoot itís too early. 
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« Reply #151 on: November 21, 2017, 01:18:14 pm »

There are a number of troubling signs. However 4 games is a small sample although I don't think I have ever seen a team shoot this bad even in a short sample. I think after 7/8 games we will get a better indication. BTW Raut may be a 43% shooter but keep in mind he was 7-9 against LIU which makes him 3-14 in the other 3 games. I would rather have someone hit like 3-7 every game as opposed to being lights out one game and bad in 3 others.
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« Reply #152 on: November 21, 2017, 01:18:34 pm »

    If you look at the NCAA's 3-pt % leaders (about top 100/150?) last season, for example, overwhelmingly, they've been consistently good shooters - they just don't have seasons where they shoot 28%, 32%, etc.

   Rich - Good for a few beers before/after a game next season: we do not finish with a 40% 3FG% shooter this season and WT does not shoot over 35% from 3 this season.
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« Reply #153 on: November 21, 2017, 01:53:42 pm »

   I'm certain we'll improve from here, but not enough.  We shot 33% from 3 last season, and I think we had better shooters then.

   My point was relative to individual players, not the team-wide stat.

   We are tantalizing to watch because in any given game we may nail a bunch of 3s and defeat anyone or, more likely, have our defense keep us in the game where that late 3 from a kid having gone 0-6 is the game-winner.

Going by players' historical averages, including this year's pathetic start, the expectation would be that we would shoot 33.7%.  That's with JC shooting at .337 as dragged down by this year's numbers, not his .382 of last year, Tavares at .297, not the .333 he shot last year or the 40% plus in a larger sample in JC ball.  I discounted perris's and Evans' JC numbers, and Havsa's small sample from last year with his worse euro numbers this summer. Etc.

33.7%, is a conservative number.  And still not good. I'd expect better than that simply because these guys were middling to good shooters in JC or major college ball.

Consistency would be nice, but averages only work over a large sample.  11 more made 3s would mean 2 more wins.  But it doesn't work that way.

Our 2% is 48.8.  Not great either, and it is dragged down by FSU, but better than going sub 23% from 3.  People here asking for Prokop to shoot it down low are right, although he's also been good from 3. He needs more than 6 shots like last game, or 11 minutes with only 2 fouls against Miami.  But I think some of that is on him. He needs to demand the ball and take the shot.  

More fun with numbers.  If we shoot 33.7% ROS and take them at the same rate as last year, we'd end up at 32.3% on the year given the rough opening.  Oof.

23-101 is worse than any 4 game stretch last year.  The worst last year seems to be Lipscomb, Rider, Arlington and Sacred Heart.  28-105 for 26.7%.  In 2015 there was a 24-100 4 game stretch against Penn State, Maryland, Mass-Lowell and Md-Eastern Shore.  That team was bad from 3, but not that bad.

This does seem to crop up more early in the season for Fordham.  Last year we actually shot better in conference than out.  And that's even though Sengfelder was awful in conference last year, and took way more 3s than anyone, 30 more than anyone else.  AA, JC and Hawk were all better in conference, and way better than they had been in their career to that point.  Hawkins shot 27.7% from 3 in OOC last year, and through that point was at 30.7% for his career.  He shot 40.4% in conference.  AA shot 28.3% in OOC lst year, and through that point was 30.7% for his career as well.  He shot 37.8% in conference.  Chartouny shot 31.5% from 3 as a freshman, and was at 33.3% for his career through OOC play.  He shot 39% from 3 in conference.

I think it's in their heads to a degree now.  Bad opening game at home.  FSU gave them yips (even though they had open 3s), carried over to Tulane.

My super secret quant analysis and use of Federal Reserve supercomputers (which discounts inflation with hedonic substitutions, etc) has us going 226-642 ROS until the A-10 tournament (i.e., over the next 26 games), for a 35.2% average ROS.  That's really not that unusual.  Last year we had that bad 4 game run in OOC.  And until the Central Connecticut game we were still at 31.3% for the year.  The next 20 games we shot 34.9%.  So maybe I have drunk the Koolaid, but like I said, I'd definitely bet we average over 33% ROS.  

I actually think we have better shooters this year than last year.  Nothing in Hawkins or AA's career up through the beginning of conference play last, or even JC's, would make you think they were very good outside shooters.  And then they were.  I do give some credence to the JC numbers, along with career numbers to date.  These guys are better than this. Small sample size alert.  
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« Reply #154 on: November 21, 2017, 02:14:06 pm »

Only half-kidding when I say I've always suspected that there's something wrong with the baskets and backboards in the RHG...anyone measured them lately?  Grin
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« Reply #155 on: November 21, 2017, 02:19:54 pm »

There are a number of troubling signs. However 4 games is a small sample although I don't think I have ever seen a team shoot this bad even in a short sample. I think after 7/8 games we will get a better indication. BTW Raut may be a 43% shooter but keep in mind he was 7-9 against LIU which makes him 3-14 in the other 3 games. I would rather have someone hit like 3-7 every game as opposed to being lights out one game and bad in 3 others.

And if you toss out FSU he's 10-17.

If you toss out the high/low games he's 3-8.  Also a tiny sample but 37.5%.

You're right we never had such a bad stretch the last few years, but we did have a 27% 4 game run last year, against pretty poor defenses.  No one nearly as good as FSU.

Regardless, this is some bad shooting, and does dampen my expectations for a potential ceiling somewhat.  It's depressing to think we might be sub-35% from 3 again given how good the D is.      
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« Reply #156 on: November 21, 2017, 03:42:54 pm »

   If you look at the NCAA's 3-pt % leaders (about top 100/150?) last season, for example, overwhelmingly, they've been consistently good shooters - they just don't have seasons where they shoot 28%, 32%, etc.

   Rich - Good for a few beers before/after a game next season: we do not finish with a 40% 3FG% shooter this season and WT does not shoot over 35% from 3 this season.

Done. 
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« Reply #157 on: November 21, 2017, 07:10:09 pm »

   If you look at the NCAA's 3-pt % leaders (about top 100/150?) last season, for example, overwhelmingly, they've been consistently good shooters - they just don't have seasons where they shoot 28%, 32%, etc.

   Rich - Good for a few beers before/after a game next season: we do not finish with a 40% 3FG% shooter this season and WT does not shoot over 35% from 3 this season.

Not sure I’d take this bet. I think Rich just likes any excuse to drink. Not sure which part of the bet I have less confidence in.
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« Reply #158 on: November 21, 2017, 08:34:17 pm »

Not sure Iíd take this bet. I think Rich just likes any excuse to drink. Not sure which part of the bet I have less confidence in.

I'm rooting for Bunting to go 2 for 5 from 3 and see how well that goes over  Evil
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« Reply #159 on: November 21, 2017, 10:08:22 pm »

Not sure Iíd take this bet. I think Rich just likes any excuse to drink. Not sure which part of the bet I have less confidence in.

You have inside information. Wagers like this are fun win even if you lose.  Fun stuff.  Now Raut and Tavares better not take any of those stupid end of half or game threes that mean nothing and hurt their percentage.   Afro
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ace93
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« Reply #160 on: November 21, 2017, 10:15:37 pm »

You have inside information. Wagers like this are fun win even if you lose.  Fun stuff.  Now Raut and Tavares better not take any of those stupid end of half or game threes that mean nothing and hurt their percentage.   Afro

I got to thinking that Tavares can win this for you all on his own. No pressure, Will!
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Nothing replaces success in the revenue sports.  Nothing.  That's not to take away from the success in the Olympic sports - they do matter.  It isn't a replacement for success in the flagship sports. - Debbie Yow, AD - NC State
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« Reply #161 on: November 22, 2017, 09:30:25 am »

Not sure Iíd take this bet. I think Rich just likes any excuse to drink. Not sure which part of the bet I have less confidence in.

   Like Rich said, even the loser is a winner. 

   I was going to try to sneak in something on Slanina, just to see Rich's head explode when he takes those early shot clock 3s.
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« Reply #162 on: November 22, 2017, 09:51:22 am »

   Like Rich said, even the loser is a winner. 

   I was going to try to sneak in something on Slanina, just to see Rich's head explode when he takes those early shot clock 3s.

Whether even the loser is a winner is really in the eye of the beerholder.
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« Reply #163 on: November 22, 2017, 03:57:02 pm »

Evans will start to hit to his historic averages, (40%)... they all will.

As long as we keep the under 33% shooters from taking too many it will be fine.  If past is prologue we'll hit more than our fair share of 3's in a game soon  and many of us will think it was a product of practice.  Nah... streaky luck, it comes back to the norm.

The good news is these guys have proven they can play D.  That's a big advantage this season!

This is the time of year for a highly turned over roster to work out the kinks, and for the coach to learn what he's got, and what he lacks.  TAveres and Raut are big positive surprises to me. I can't see Chuba regressing as much as feared.

Havsa and Pekarek have played their way out of minutes, and that's as it should be.

Slania looks like he'll be a big contributor. Hicks looks solid, and I expect Evans to play to his potential when he gets comfortable in D1 (remember all of the old debates about Freshman at our level of recruiting don't have a role?) Well, I thing we're being impatient with him.

That was a damn good Tulane team, and we were in it if we shoot close to our norms.   

And we have a very good coach
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« Reply #164 on: November 22, 2017, 05:29:00 pm »

There are a number of troubling signs. However 4 games is a small sample although I don't think I have ever seen a team shoot this bad even in a short sample. I think after 7/8 games we will get a better indication. BTW Raut may be a 43% shooter but keep in mind he was 7-9 against LIU which makes him 3-14 in the other 3 games. I would rather have someone hit like 3-7 every game as opposed to being lights out one game and bad in 3 others.

Buddy Hield shot .238 from 3 as a freshman in 3 attempts per game. He shot .457 as a senior.  Justin Jackson shot winder 30% from 3 each of his first 2 years, shot 37%+ as a junior (0-9 in the title game, however), and went 15 in the draft.  He came in with a good outside shooting rep (UNC seems to have this issue too with 3 point shooters, coming in with a rep but not starting out well). Some guys do get better.  Hawkins and Anderson improved.  Chartouny improved last year.  It's not always linear and 3 point shooting can be pretty volatile game to game, obviously, and year to year.  Yes, there are some consistently excellent shooters. 
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