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Fordham vs E.Tenn St. - Pre-Game/In-Game 11/29/17, 7pm at RHG


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« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2017, 09:21:24 am »

Pomeroy predicts a 65-64 loss and puts our win percentage at 47%. 

Sorry Ken, it may be a tossup but no way are they scoring 65.
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« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2017, 09:23:37 am »

Just an FYI, UT Arlington has cracked the top 25, we had home and home with them. They had some beasts down low.
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« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2017, 10:14:59 am »

Interesting that Mercer is picked first even though they were 9-9 in the Southern last year.  Furman tied with UNC-Greensboro and ETSU at 14-4, and they return most of their best players, including Sibley.  They lost Acox, but they get matt rafferty back, who missed a lot of last year. 

My bet would be Greensboro.  Alonso is really good and Dickey is a real interior presence and rim protector.  Their 2 losses this year were by 12 at Virginia and by 6 at Wake Forest (which is no great shakes this year, but still).  It's taken Wes Miller a while but he seems o be coming into his own as a coach.

It actually looks like a tough little conference this year.

BTW, speaking of rim protectors, Manhattan has a really good one in Pauly Paulicap.  A juco transfer, he had 5 blocks against Fordham.  he was 6th in NJCAA in blocks last year.  He's actually 4th in the country so far this year in block %.  Making 60% from the field. 
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« Reply #33 on: November 28, 2017, 10:22:58 am »

Just an FYI, UT Arlington has cracked the top 25, we had home and home with them. They had some beasts down low.

I don't think so, although they are decent.  75 in kenpom, which is where they ended up last year.

They aren't in the AP top 25.  You may be thinking Texas Tech, which got in the poll yesterday, at 22.  Or Texas Christian, in its 2nd year under Jamie Dixon (wonder if Pitt wants him back).    They are ranked 23rd in AP.  A&M is 9th in AP.  Baylor ranked 16th. Texas is 27th in Kenpom.  Shaka's got Bomba down there, but he has a lot of comp.  SMU 32 in kenpom.

Texas, the state, is stacked in hoops.  They only have TCU in the top 25 in football.  They'd trade all these basketball teams for a little more football success.
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« Reply #34 on: November 28, 2017, 10:28:48 am »

Sorry Ken, it may be a tossup but no way are they scoring 65.

Respectfully, why the hell not? We can cap until we're purple, it could be a 57-50 game with under 2 min to go and we see eight fouls in the final 80 seconds. They may be able to break our press and it turns into a track meet for stretches. Sh*t happens, I think 65-64 is entirely feasible.

ETSU 66
Fordham 63

Evans with 17.
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« Reply #35 on: November 28, 2017, 10:36:19 am »

I don't think so, although they are decent.  75 in kenpom, which is where they ended up last year.

They aren't in the AP top 25.  You may be thinking Texas Tech, which got in the poll yesterday, at 22.  Or Texas Christian, in its 2nd year under Jamie Dixon (wonder if Pitt wants him back).    They are ranked 23rd in AP.  A&M is 9th in AP.  Baylor ranked 16th. Texas is 27th in Kenpom.  Shaka's got Bomba down there, but he has a lot of comp.  SMU 32 in kenpom.

Texas, the state, is stacked in hoops.  They only have TCU in the top 25 in football.  They'd trade all these basketball teams for a little more football success.

Seth Davis has them in top 25, it appeared to be a posting of the actual rankings, but now it appears it is his own ranking.....I cant beleive it, something on twitter wasnt accurate!
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« Reply #36 on: November 28, 2017, 10:48:47 am »

Pekarek is a lifetime 31% shooter all inclusive meaning both 2 and 3 point shots. That is horrible. Havsa had a couple of good games last year but has not shown much otherwise. I prefer Taveres when he is driving the lane. Seems to be our best penetrator/person taking it to the hoop. Chartouney improved somewhat last year but has never been a great 3 point shooter. Evans is a ?. Should definitely see improvement but to what extent not sure.

Pekarek hasn't been a good shooter in his career, but that just highlights how bad 7-64 is.  Pekarek's career effective field goal percentage is .406 (.408 from 2, .27 from 3, with a .682 3 point attempt rate).  Still not good.

But 27% from 3 would be 17.25 makes out of 64.  Even if the whole lot shot like Pekarek for his career, that's 10+ more makes and 30+ more points left on the board.

I posted before the Manhattan game in another thread my guesstimate that we'd shoot 35.2% from 3 ROS through end of regular conference schedule.  So, not of to a bad start, after 7-16 against the Jaspers.  Don't let me down, boys.   Although i predicted 624 shots in those 26 games and we only took 16.  So i got catching up to do, but maybe we are going to ease up a tad.  

Pekarek has been bad.  In his defense he is coming back from injury and playing very sporadically.  30 minutes in 4 games.  He did get 14 minutes out of necessity against Manhattan and still looks lost offensively.  Not sure if that was Paulicap who stuffed him on the mid-range jumper but he's a great shotblocker.  Pekarek did have 3 steals, and we'll need him to improve.

Pekarek has gone backwards.  His best year was his freshman year, and he was better in conference that year. When he was forced into playing time, starting actually, he was decent.  he had a 10 game stretch end of season where he was starting mostly, averaged 10 ppg, 3.3 rpg, some steals and blocks, 49% from 2, 33% from 3 for an overall 49%+ eFG%.  And Fordham went 5-5 in conference in that run (he then fell off against Rhode Island and the post-season games).

I know that's cherry picking, and even that wasn't amazeballs or anything, but he was certainly a serviceable A-10 level player in those games.  last year he was hurt even before he stopped playing.  Now he seems gun-shy.  But it's 30 minutes so far after not playing for almost a year against real teams.  Hopefully he gets used to playing back-up but significant minutes, given the current depth, at a higher level approaching what he did near the end of his freshman year, and hopefully showing some growth.  His high-scoring game last year was 11 in the opening game against ETSU on 3-6 from 3.  I'll take that.  Without the rest of the awfulness, please.    Actually, we're better off without him hoisting 6 3s probably, but i'll take some efficient, effective minutes, thanks.  
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« Reply #37 on: November 28, 2017, 11:05:21 am »

Respectfully, why the hell not? We can cap until we're purple, it could be a 57-50 game with under 2 min to go and we see eight fouls in the final 80 seconds. They may be able to break our press and it turns into a track meet for stretches. Sh*t happens, I think 65-64 is entirely feasible.

ETSU 66
Fordham 63

Evans with 17.

I also have unshakable faith in our free throw defense.
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« Reply #38 on: November 28, 2017, 11:20:46 am »

Seth Davis has them in top 25, it appeared to be a posting of the actual rankings, but now it appears it is his own ranking.....I cant beleive it, something on twitter wasnt accurate!

Ah, you're right.  He voted them 25th.  They only got one point so Seth is on an island there.   Let's see.  They lost by 1 at Alabama (which ws using all of their players, not just 3).  Not a bad loss at all. 'Bama was 25th.  Beat BYU, Niagara (who beat the Bonnies), Western Carolina, Loyola-Marymount and Texas-Dallas.  Not enough for top 25.

 
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« Reply #39 on: November 28, 2017, 11:37:04 am »

Pekarek hasn't been a good shooter in his career, but that just highlights how bad 7-64 is.  Pekarek's career effective field goal percentage is .406 (.408 from 2, .27 from 3, with a .682 3 point attempt rate).  Still not good.

But 27% from 3 would be 17.25 makes out of 64.  Even if the whole lot shot like Pekarek for his career, that's 10+ more makes and 30+ more points left on the board.

I posted before the Manhattan game in another thread my guesstimate that we'd shoot 35.2% from 3 ROS through end of regular conference schedule.  So, not of to a bad start, after 7-16 against the Jaspers.  Don't let me down, boys.   Although i predicted 624 shots in those 26 games and we only took 16.  So i got catching up to do, but maybe we are going to ease up a tad.  

Pekarek has been bad.  In his defense he is coming back from injury and playing very sporadically.  30 minutes in 4 games.  He did get 14 minutes out of necessity against Manhattan and still looks lost offensively.  Not sure if that was Paulicap who stuffed him on the mid-range jumper but he's a great shotblocker.  Pekarek did have 3 steals, and we'll need him to improve.

Pekarek has gone backwards.  His best year was his freshman year, and he was better in conference that year. When he was forced into playing time, starting actually, he was decent.  he had a 10 game stretch end of season where he was starting mostly, averaged 10 ppg, 3.3 rpg, some steals and blocks, 49% from 2, 33% from 3 for an overall 49%+ eFG%.  And Fordham went 5-5 in conference in that run (he then fell off against Rhode Island and the post-season games).

I know that's cherry picking, and even that wasn't amazeballs or anything, but he was certainly a serviceable A-10 level player in those games.  last year he was hurt even before he stopped playing.  Now he seems gun-shy.  But it's 30 minutes so far after not playing for almost a year against real teams.  Hopefully he gets used to playing back-up but significant minutes, given the current depth, at a higher level approaching what he did near the end of his freshman year, and hopefully showing some growth.  His high-scoring game last year was 11 in the opening game against ETSU on 3-6 from 3.  I'll take that.  Without the rest of the awfulness, please.    Actually, we're better off without him hoisting 6 3s probably, but i'll take some efficient, effective minutes, thanks.  

Don't see the logic of talking about an effective field goal percentage when a player takes 68% of his shots from 3 and hits 27%. Its meaningless. That is like saying if he took more layups his percentage would be higher. He is what his stats say he is. No sugar coating it.
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« Reply #40 on: November 28, 2017, 12:07:35 pm »

The stats are mediocre, or worse actually, no doubt.  The overall effect is what matters.  If he didn't shoot 3 pointers his % would be higher.  40% from 2 isn't great either.  But JC is .394 from 2 this year.  Tavares was .380 from 2 last year. 

If all he took was 3 pointers and his overall pct is lousy, 33% (just as an example), that would be 49.5% eFG%.  Last year our main scorers were JC, .507, Hawkins .482, Anderson, .480.

I didn't mean to suggest that his career 40% eFG% is acceptable.  But that even making 27% from 3, which we all acknowledge is poor, would be leaps and bounds better than the 7-64 that whole group has shot from 3.  That's how bad it has been, and how much better even sub-mediocrity, instead of abominable, would be.  If all our 3 point shooters were shooting like career Pekarek, still pretty badly, we'd have 30 more points and another win or 2.

The rest was just pointing out how little info we actually have to go on.  30 minutes this year.  Injury-plagued last year.  Just getting back to how he played as a starter down the stretch as a freshman would be an enormous improvement.

There's a reason why a longish guy with a good form gets a lot of chances.  No comparison obviously, but Justin Jackson shot under 30% from 3 his first 2 years.  Last year he upped it to 37% and ACC player of the year.

Not expecting anything of the sort.  Even just a return to his freshman form in conference play (.473 eFG%, .457 from 2, .321 from 3), while no great shakes, would be a huge step up if he could do it in back-up minutes.  I'm hoping that guy, at the very least,  is still in there somewhere.  Just so as not to have a giant black hole.

Right now, 6 guys on the team seem like players. Hicks, Chartouny (albeit in a slump), Raut, Slanina, Bunting, and Tavares.  We need for Pekarek, Havsa and Evans to give us something.  Anything.

Evans has been bad.  Pekarek and Havsa beyond bad.  Right now you want to play the top guys 38 minutes a game, but there are and will be injuries, foul trouble, etc.
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« Reply #41 on: November 28, 2017, 12:08:28 pm »

Just an FYI, UT Arlington has cracked the top 25, we had home and home with them. They had some beasts down low.

.... and the progress all started with new facilities at UTA!    Cheesy Grin   

https://goo.gl/images/k68U5i

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« Reply #42 on: November 28, 2017, 12:22:00 pm »

.... and the progress all started with new facilities at UTA!    Cheesy Grin   

https://goo.gl/images/k68U5i



Photos of their crowd during last nights win.  1500 people and lot of empty blue seats. 

http://www.utamavs.com/view.gal?id=210057

Now back to our game. 
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« Reply #43 on: November 28, 2017, 02:31:33 pm »

Now back to our game. 

Yes, please.

Letís flip the Pekarek discussion and make it relevant to tomorrow. 

O/U
Pekarek 10 min
Pekarek 3 points
Pekarek 2 rebounds
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« Reply #44 on: November 28, 2017, 03:03:58 pm »

Yes, please.

Letís flip the Pekarek discussion and make it relevant to tomorrow. 

O/U
Pekarek 10 min
Pekarek 3 points
Pekarek 2 rebounds

I'd take it.  With a steal and no turnovers.  Amazingly, that would be a huge step up.

What I'd like to see from Havsa is a dribble drive.  Then a wraparound for a Tavares dunk, or a kick out to Hicks or whomever for a 3.  I don't need him to light up the stat sheet.  But take the initiative for once.

And I'd love for Evans to hit your predicted 17.

Hey, 37-69 from 2 the last 2 games.  .536. Compared to Florida State the inside must have looked much more inviting to the guys (despite Paulicap's 5 blocks).   

ETSU has a top 100 kenpom D, so no easy task.  25th in opponent turnover %.  Ha, pikers.  Fordham is 3rd. They are not great at shooting D, so TOs are their bread and butter.  Protect the ball.  Coach JN says we are better than last year at that.

I'm going to go with the offensive "breakout".  Fordham 74 ETSU 67.
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« Reply #45 on: November 28, 2017, 04:00:44 pm »

I'd take it.  With a steal and no turnovers.  Amazingly, that would be a huge step up.

I was giving an O/U on each, although that exact line would not surprise me.

As for Evans, I'd love it too. He needs it. It's getting late, early. If he can get a few shots down and find himself with 15 points down the stretch, it's going to change everything. I think he's going to get that type of game and it'll get the ball rolling for him.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #46 on: November 28, 2017, 08:31:12 pm »

Another expert proof reading job - from athletics website headline for tomorrows game.

Menís Basketball Hosts East Tennessee State on Sunday
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« Reply #47 on: November 28, 2017, 08:37:46 pm »

Another expert proof reading job - from athletics website headline for tomorrows game.

Menís Basketball Hosts East Tennessee State on Sunday

It's unbelievable, really. And there will be no repercussion.

Fordham will never be BC with Iona-caliber people in place.

Back to ETSU, what do you fine gentlemen see occurring in 24 hours?

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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #48 on: November 28, 2017, 08:54:39 pm »

ETSU is opening -2. Not good.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #49 on: November 28, 2017, 08:56:26 pm »

Yes, please.

Letís flip the Pekarek discussion and make it relevant to tomorrow. 

O/U
Pekarek 10 min
Pekarek 3 points
Pekarek 2 rebounds

Tough to say since we donít know who is healthy but I will take the over on minutes and points under on rebounds even though it Should be set at 2.5. 
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« Reply #50 on: November 28, 2017, 09:47:38 pm »

I'm cautiously optimistic for tomorrow night. Won't be there -- flying to LA and Pasadena -- if I were landing earlier I'd think about going to watch Mr. Austin's next HS game. Our strength is in the backcourt. The Florida State game showed we don't handle size well. ETSU is also backcourt-oriented. We force a bunch of TOs and ETSU turns the ball over a bunch. We're home, and if we have focus, I think we can win this. I'm going with Rams, 73-70.
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« Reply #51 on: November 28, 2017, 10:02:36 pm »

The Pekarek talk is almost more interesting than the overall game convo.

I think Pekarek plays 15 minutes and finishes with 6 points and 4 rebounds.
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« Reply #52 on: November 28, 2017, 10:36:16 pm »

The Pekarek talk is almost more interesting than the overall game convo.

I think Pekarek plays 15 minutes and finishes with 6 points and 4 rebounds.

David Pekarek? David Petraeus will be more relevant to tomorrow night's game.

8 minutes. 0 points. 1 rebound. Under. Under. Under.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #53 on: November 29, 2017, 07:32:58 am »

Pekarek should help on the power play.
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« Reply #54 on: November 29, 2017, 08:14:24 am »

Pekarek should help on the power play.

Not a bad acquisition from Winnipeg if weíre only sending a future 4th back. Heís had 63 hits with Manitoba through 24 games.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #55 on: November 29, 2017, 08:28:25 am »

This would be a good game for  comprehensive pre-game notes with injury updates. 
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« Reply #56 on: November 29, 2017, 08:52:58 am »

Interesting that Mercer is picked first even though they were 9-9 in the Southern last year.  Furman tied with UNC-Greensboro and ETSU at 14-4, and they return most of their best players, including Sibley.  They lost Acox, but they get matt rafferty back, who missed a lot of last year. 

My bet would be Greensboro.  Alonso is really good and Dickey is a real interior presence and rim protector.  Their 2 losses this year were by 12 at Virginia and by 6 at Wake Forest (which is no great shakes this year, but still).  It's taken Wes Miller a while but he seems o be coming into his own as a coach.

It actually looks like a tough little conference this year.

BTW, speaking of rim protectors, Manhattan has a really good one in Pauly Paulicap.  A juco transfer, he had 5 blocks against Fordham.  he was 6th in NJCAA in blocks last year.  He's actually 4th in the country so far this year in block %.  Making 60% from the field. 

agreee on UNC Greensboro winning the SoCon
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« Reply #57 on: November 29, 2017, 10:10:36 am »

Evans with 17.

   You'll be correct eventually, just not tonight.
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« Reply #58 on: November 29, 2017, 10:20:25 am »

   You'll be correct eventually, just not tonight.

It's the Peter Martin jinx. He won't be right about Evans until he stops predicting it.

Or if he keeps predicting it, he will (hopefully) eventually be right.
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« Reply #59 on: November 29, 2017, 11:15:44 am »

I was giving an O/U on each, although that exact line would not surprise me.

As for Evans, I'd love it too. He needs it. It's getting late, early. If he can get a few shots down and find himself with 15 points down the stretch, it's going to change everything. I think he's going to get that type of game and it'll get the ball rolling for him.

Ah, ok, over on all 3.  As Rich93 notes we don't have an injury update, other than JN post-game saying day to day.  Even if both available there's foul trouble, lingering issue of Bunting's back or whatever kept Slanina out.  JN does often ride his best guys.  Against Tulane Tavares 36, JC 35, Slanina 34, Raut 32.  If Jesse and Prokop both healthy Pekarek may get close to bupkes.

He got 14 minutes last game with Prokop out and Jesse aching.  Did Evans also come out last game?  Maybe that was just because of this sequence:  8:23 Tre Evans missed layup...7:17 Tre Evans missed layup 7:17 Pauly Paulicap block...6:57 Tre Evans turnover.  There were also 2 Capuano layups and a jumper tossed in during that sequence.  Was that Tre's man? Anyway, i think he was gone after that.

So, with all that uncertainty over who is available, I think we may see another 14-15 or so of DP.  For his career he's at 16.6 mpg so JN plays him despite the shooting issues.  And earlier this year he was still coming off not just last year's injury but a concussion just prior to the season starting, and missed the Miami of Ohio game.   

For the points, ok, averages 4.2 ppg for his career.  1.7 rebounds, so that's where just playing a hunch.  Plus if he is playing it may be because other bigs out.

Finally, last year against ETSU he went for 11/3.

Voila.  I've gone overkill on this Pekarek o/u.
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