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Why cant our players shoot?


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« Reply #30 on: December 01, 2017, 09:58:43 am »

I am replying to what you bring up. Try to keep up.

You are so all over the place, it appears you are confusing yourself. You are the one that mentioned what the announcers said about Raut and I was replying to that.

Drink some green tea, it might help make you a bit more alert.

Im not all over the place. Look at Skip Pass's post regarding Raut, which was referenced. The announcers were referring to the coach making such a comment. The made several comments about his shooting prowess.

Keep drinking the Kool Aid and waiting for the 3's to start raining down like green tea from the heavens. Did you see that game, nobody was there because very few people give a crap anynmore, it was an empty gym. Nobody wants to go watch this garbage. So keep the modern game theme alive, so you and 2 other people can sit in the stands and wait for that great combo guard to step forward.
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« Reply #31 on: December 01, 2017, 10:01:07 am »

   100%.  I don't see those two being worth it.  Perhaps one.  We'll see.

Agreed. I did not see either as an exciting transfer. Perhaps the year of practice will have them ready for the system we run though. For example, Hicks seemed more ready to go than Evans did.
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« Reply #32 on: December 01, 2017, 10:03:39 am »

Im not all over the place. Look at Skip Pass's post regarding Raut, which was referenced. The announcers were referring to the coach making such a comment. The made several comments about his shooting prowess.

Keep drinking the Kool Aid and waiting for the 3's to start raining down like green tea from the heavens. Did you see that game, nobody was there because very few people give a crap anynmore, it was an empty gym. Nobody wants to go watch this garbage. So keep the modern game theme alive, so you and 2 other people can sit in the stands and wait for that great combo guard to step forward.

I have not been to a game in the RHG in over two seasons. I think my last one was our victory over St. John's. I watch from home where my green tea tastes more like bourbon. Only way to get through this. I have watched all the games this season and don't recall the announcers saying something that extreme. Might be the green tea though.
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« Reply #33 on: December 01, 2017, 10:03:56 am »

Of course it matters.....The only guys who can score are the big guys because they are shooting over people and using their their size. Its exactly the point, you keep signing these 6ft 2 guys and they are not skilled enough or fast enough or good enough pure shooters to get their shot off effectively at this level. Good luck witha team of nine (9)  6ft 2 guys who do not ascribe to any "position."

No it doesnít matter. Either you can shoot or you canít.  How tall you are does not matter.  If your forward shoots then you move him to the three point line take a shot blocker with him opening it up for guards t drive the ball to the basket or hit them on cuts.  You really need to learn how this offense is supposed to work. Note the word supposed because we donít know this early in the season what the final verdict will be.

Im not all over the place. Look at Skip Pass's post regarding Raut, which was referenced. The announcers were referring to the coach making such a comment. The made several comments about his shooting prowess.

Keep drinking the Kool Aid and waiting for the 3's to start raining down like green tea from the heavens. Did you see that game, nobody was there because very few people give a crap anynmore, it was an empty gym. Nobody wants to go watch this garbage. So keep the modern game theme alive, so you and 2 other people can sit in the stands and wait for that great combo guard to step forward.

Your last paragraph is your true gripe you donít like the modern game.  Note you have not gone to games for years so your opinion on an empty gym is irrelevant.  I doubt attendance has anything to do with our shooting threes, I think the record is at the heart of it.  Fans are beaten down and we need a big time run, more than last year recovery after a brutal start.  I am talking nit appearance, short of that losing to Miami oh opening night is a killer for fans.
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« Reply #34 on: December 01, 2017, 11:40:35 am »

When the big schools ignore a 6ft 11 skilled big like Slanina, then I think it shows they may" be out there for us. Ditto for Taveras, a terrific, slashing small forward. I think again its diversity. You have to give a little to get. If you sign a Dave Buckner, pure shooter, and maybe he isnt quite up to snuff on D, you need to consider it. Ditto for a pure PG who maybe doesnt look to shoot .....but it appears to me that the team is being stocked with combo guards, both now and more so for next year.....I just dont think we are ever going to get the type of players to make a system like this win at this level...hopefully I am wrong..
Buck couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat our junior year.
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« Reply #35 on: December 01, 2017, 11:52:08 am »

We had 3 bigs coming into the season that were supposed to fill 1 position. I think you would be hardpressed to find a 4th big that is of any quality when they know they are coming to a system that employs 1 big at a time.

Any big of quality would know he has a good chance to start ahead of the 3 we have.
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« Reply #36 on: December 01, 2017, 12:24:39 pm »

Hey, Sanchez is 2-2 from 3 in his career!

Trying to find Nick Honor's stats. All I can find is his freshman year in high school.  39% on pretty high volume.

It's true that a lot of these guys shot well in high school.  Hicks is now backing that up.  Get JC back to last year, or just his career numbers.  Man, there's the real disaster JC 2-20, Evans 0-14 (he was over 40% in juco), Havsa 0-7, Pekarek 1-9.  3-50?  6%?  I think it got in their heads.

Last year's team got better in conference, except Sengfelder killed us.  He was our volume 3 shooter and he cratered to about 30%

My prediction is still rest of season we are over 35%. And since I made that prediction we are 13-35 (.371). 
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« Reply #37 on: December 01, 2017, 12:57:14 pm »

Buck couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat our junior year.

46-137 33.6% from 3. I know what you're saying, but that sounds majestic right now.
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« Reply #38 on: December 01, 2017, 12:59:10 pm »

This observation/question is not about shooting but is about bigs and roles and abilities of others:

A staple of the offense is the entry pass at the foul-line/top of the circle to a big. Usually Slanina or Bunting handle this. They then pass the ball to a wing or back to the guard as off the ball movement takes place and (hopefully) a shot opens up.

If Slanina's is on the bench because of fouls/rest or (God forbid) injury, who is at the high post receiving that initial entry pass? (And it's not as easy as just picking any name because they're not all comfortable playing with their back to the basket or have the wing span and ability to see where it should go, kick it and keep it away from opposing hands).
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« Reply #39 on: December 01, 2017, 01:09:28 pm »

Raut and Tavares shredded th Manhattan zone getting the ball at the foul line. They are more than capable of playing that role and can face up as well. 
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« Reply #40 on: December 01, 2017, 01:12:34 pm »

Raut and Tavares shredded th Manhattan zone getting the ball at the foul line. They are more than capable of playing that role and can face up as well. 

Thanks Rich.
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« Reply #41 on: December 01, 2017, 03:17:12 pm »

One thing I think can help this team right away is to get Hicks more shots and more time on the court.   He is shooting at a 64% clip overall on 16 for 25 shots and is shooting 50% from 3 on 6 for 12 shots.  He has also hit 7 out of 10 free throws 70%.  Meanwhile, he is 6th in minutes played.
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« Reply #42 on: December 01, 2017, 03:17:53 pm »

Out of 351 D1 programs, here's Fordham's rank in 3PG% broken down by coaching era:

2016-17 = (33.4%) ... #255 ... 28th percentile  
2015-16 = (34.6%) ... #175 ... 51st percentile (top half!)

2014-15 = (30.5%) ... #314 ... 11th percentile
2013-14 = (30.6%) ... #323 ... 8th percentile (!)
2012-13 = (31.1%) ... #291 ... 17th percentile
2011-12 = (27.5%) ... #341 ... 3rd percentile (!!)
2010-11 = (33.6%) ... #205 ... 42nd percentile

2009-10 = (27.8%) ... #341 ... 3rd percentile (!!!)
2008-09 = (29.7%) ... #322 ... 8th percentile
2007-08 = (32.3%) ... #278 ... 21st percentile
2006-07 = (35.7%) ... #141 ... 60th percentile
2005-06 = (36.9%) ... #068 ... 80th percentile
2004-05 = (33.8%) ... #201 ... 43rd percentile
2003-04 = (31.9%) ... #265 ... 25th percentile

That's truly a rich tradition of being a bottom-third shooting team. As Rich pointed out, recent history is largely irrelevant, so this is all presented with a grain of salt. And, I'm sure the reasons for each of these teams hitting at a poor clip are myriad and varied. Recruiting "scorers" who are average shooters? Recruiting good high school shooters who maybe are overmatched athletically at this level? Offensive "systems" that don't produce good looks for our guys? Guys who get dispirited from the losing and drop off a bit? Probably all of the above, at various times and in various combinations.
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« Reply #43 on: December 01, 2017, 03:31:26 pm »

Out of 351 D1 programs, here's Fordham's rank in 3PG% broken down by coaching era:

2016-17 = (33.4%) ... #255 ... 28th percentile  
2015-16 = (34.6%) ... #175 ... 51st percentile (top half!)

2014-15 = (30.5%) ... #314 ... 11th percentile
2013-14 = (30.6%) ... #323 ... 8th percentile (!)
2012-13 = (31.1%) ... #291 ... 17th percentile
2011-12 = (27.5%) ... #341 ... 3rd percentile (!!)
2010-11 = (33.6%) ... #205 ... 42nd percentile

2009-10 = (27.8%) ... #341 ... 3rd percentile (!!!)
2008-09 = (29.7%) ... #322 ... 8th percentile
2007-08 = (32.3%) ... #278 ... 21st percentile
2006-07 = (35.7%) ... #141 ... 60th percentile
2005-06 = (36.9%) ... #068 ... 80th percentile
2004-05 = (33.8%) ... #201 ... 43rd percentile
2003-04 = (31.9%) ... #265 ... 25th percentile

That's truly a rich tradition of being a bottom-third shooting team. As Rich pointed out, recent history is largely irrelevant, so this is all presented with a grain of salt. And, I'm sure the reasons for each of these teams hitting at a poor clip are myriad and varied. Recruiting "scorers" who are average shooters? Recruiting good high school shooters who maybe are overmatched athletically at this level? Offensive "systems" that don't produce good looks for our guys? Guys who get dispirited from the losing and drop off a bit? Probably all of the above, at various times and in various combinations.

Good info RR but I disagree on the recent history being irrelevant.  It speaks exactly to my point in starting the thread. There are simply not enough good three (3) point shooters available  that we can get to load up the team and play this style. Neubauer has had some success because his teams play outstanding defense and it keeps us in games. But it isnt enough.   

Just look at 06-07. A balanced team that took  526 three (3) pointers. Last year's team took 791.
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« Reply #44 on: December 01, 2017, 03:48:01 pm »

Sean Armand would have changed the 2010-2014 temperature:

2010-11:   6.4 ppg, 42% 3-pt
2011-12:   9.5 ppg, 46% 3-pt (2.5/5.2 per game)
2012-13: 16.6 ppg, 41% 3-pt (3.3/8 per game)
2013-14: 17.5 ppg, 44% 3-pt (3/6.5 per game)

*and 2-pt FG per year: 39/52/48/54.

Armand wanted to be here, I spoke with Pecora on the phone about it. He could have accommodated him, opted not to. Iona. Brutal. Alternate universe, Frazier would have been at Hofstra, Armand at Fordham. Or both at Fordham with the promise to have enough shots for both.
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« Reply #45 on: December 01, 2017, 04:12:27 pm »

Gotcha. Six games into Year 3, I'm not ready to write-off Neubauer and his approach. 2015-2016 we shot league average -- literally 1 spot above the D1 median -- and it got us to 17-14, and just a couple bad possessions away from even better.

Last year we just weren't good enough -- too many lifetime 30-32% shooters (Hawkins, Pekarek, Zarkovic, Anderson) taking multiple 3's per game... compounded by a down year by Sengfelder.

But I bet Neubie probably entered this season feeling we had a much better collection of shooters -- Hicks is hitting 3's at 50% (after 39% in JUCO). Slanina was hitting 43.8% before going down. Throw out one lousy game and Raut is at 50% (in a small sample size). Evans shot 40% in JUCO and had the offers to make one think his play wouldn't suffer much in D1. Chartouny has a great body of work, including 38% last year. Our staff is probably feeling like we've got the horses to make everything go.

Until Evans starts off 0-14. Prokop gets injured. Chartouny's 3PG% is currently down an unfathomable 25 points from his career mark. (Havsa was streaky last year, but, again, you don't come into the year thinking he's going to hurt us with poor shooting.)

With limited numbers on Honor and Austin I'm not ready to assume that next year's personnel is setting us up for failure, either. Portley's not a sharpshooter, but 34% is pretty much league average. I'd love a couple guys who shoot 38-39%, but even a trio of guys around 35% would make us more competitive than we've been the last couple years. (Again, D1 average = 17-14, mid-pack in conference in 2015-2016.)

By way of comparison, pulling up those old stats got me curious about Pecora. It's well-documented that he was in love with combo guards who would create their own shot off the dribble -- aka the opposite of dead-eye spot-up shooters -- and would try to surround them with athletic forwards to attack the glass.

His record here is documented above, but his Hofstra teams were just as rough! Apart from that little run with Stokes and Agudio -- and his only good stretch-4, Kieza -- Pecora's teams go 29%, 32%, 33%, 33%, 31%, 32%. Whether from system, personnel or both, Tom Pecora teams are bad shooting teams almost by design!

No excuses, we are what we are -- and currently, we're a team that shoots 26% on threes. But I don't think that's simply a by-product of Neubauer's approach to offense and recruiting, the way it was with Pecora. Raut, Hicks and Slanina all have looked to fit the bill. (Note that Nych Smith is hitting 45.5% at Winthrop, so far.) Of his 10 EKU teams, 8 shot between 35% and 40% from deep, with another at 34.8%.

If it were simply a matter of supply, there's no reason we shouldn't be able to be near the D1 average. The shooters are out there to make this work -- and may even be on the roster already. As drunkle pointed out... we're 37% in our last two. You'd expect Chartouny to regress toward the mean. As short-handed as we are, I don't expect many "W's" the rest of the way, but if he and Evans join Hicks and Raut on the right side of 34% in the coming weeks (reasonable possibility), it won't be because of our shooting.

20 games left this season to see who those guys really are.
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« Reply #46 on: December 01, 2017, 04:19:03 pm »

Sean Armand would have changed the 2010-2014 temperature:

2010-11:   6.4 ppg, 42% 3-pt
2011-12:   9.5 ppg, 46% 3-pt (2.5/5.2 per game)
2012-13: 16.6 ppg, 41% 3-pt (3.3/8 per game)
2013-14: 17.5 ppg, 44% 3-pt (3/6.5 per game)

*and 2-pt FG per year: 39/52/48/54.

Armand wanted to be here, I spoke with Pecora on the phone about it. He could have accommodated him, opted not to. Iona. Brutal. Alternate universe, Frazier would have been at Hofstra, Armand at Fordham. Or both at Fordham with the promise to have enough shots for both.

And Lance Brown shot 41.7% in 2009-2010.

Of course, getting thrown into the fire with 20+ minutes as a freshman on a team full of dreck might also have produced a totally different Sean Armand by 2013-2014.
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« Reply #47 on: December 01, 2017, 04:25:36 pm »

Funny how Marcus Stout is mentioned in the IP as a great shooter. By my count, he took the most missed shots of any player in Fordham history. But he had confidence, wanted the ball at key times and -- most importantly -- played with a core of guys who had chemistry and esprit de corps. Chemistry has been lacking for awhile.
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« Reply #48 on: December 01, 2017, 04:33:06 pm »

Hey, Sanchez is 2-2 from 3 in his career!

Trying to find Nick Honor's stats. All I can find is his freshman year in high school.  39% on pretty high volume.

It's true that a lot of these guys shot well in high school.  Hicks is now backing that up.  Get JC back to last year, or just his career numbers.  Man, there's the real disaster JC 2-20, Evans 0-14 (he was over 40% in juco), Havsa 0-7, Pekarek 1-9.  3-50?  6%?  I think it got in their heads.

Last year's team got better in conference, except Sengfelder killed us.  He was our volume 3 shooter and he cratered to about 30%

My prediction is still rest of season we are over 35%. And since I made that prediction we are 13-35 (.371). 

These guys aren't even looking for 3's right now (except Pekarek). They need to get their confidence back.
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« Reply #49 on: December 01, 2017, 04:38:00 pm »

Stout:
   
01 STOUT, Marcus...... 27-16  809 30.0 114-306  .373  56-170  .329  60-80   .750
01 STOUT, Marcus...... 32-23  991 31.0 146-356  .410  48-127  .378  77-100  .770
01 STOUT, Marcus...... 30-30  988 32.9 157-368  .427  74-196  .378  72-109  .661
01 STOUT, Marcus...... 29-25  975 33.6 152-379  .401  73-210  .348  61-84   .726

One factor of course that is also overlooked is the transfer rate now. Constantly shuffling new guys in to start every year. Hawkins took a little bit to get going last year but was dynamite later in season.  Its hard to figure this team, it seems like when when player has a cold night from 3, its ice cold and kills us. The two that are head scratchers so far, albeit just 6 games, are Chartouny and Havsa. Chartouny needs a confidence breaker to get off the schnide.
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« Reply #50 on: December 01, 2017, 05:02:13 pm »

Gotcha. Six games into Year 3, I'm not ready to write-off Neubauer and his approach. 2015-2016 we shot league average -- literally 1 spot above the D1 median -- and it got us to 17-14, and just a couple bad possessions away from even better.

Last year we just weren't good enough -- too many lifetime 30-32% shooters (Hawkins, Pekarek, Zarkovic, Anderson) taking multiple 3's per game... compounded by a down year by Sengfelder.

But I bet Neubie probably entered this season feeling we had a much better collection of shooters -- Hicks is hitting 3's at 50% (after 39% in JUCO). Slanina was hitting 43.8% before going down. Throw out one lousy game and Raut is at 50% (in a small sample size). Evans shot 40% in JUCO and had the offers to make one think his play wouldn't suffer much in D1. Chartouny has a great body of work, including 38% last year. Our staff is probably feeling like we've got the horses to make everything go.

Until Evans starts off 0-14. Prokop gets injured. Chartouny's 3PG% is currently down an unfathomable 25 points from his career mark. (Havsa was streaky last year, but, again, you don't come into the year thinking he's going to hurt us with poor shooting.)

True about the season being only 6 games old so time will tell but right now the trend is going the wrong way as 2015-2016 was the better of the 3. You can speculate as to why but now that we are in year 3 of JN these are his recruits and he has to be held accountable if things do not turn.

With limited numbers on Honor and Austin I'm not ready to assume that next year's personnel is setting us up for failure, either. Portley's not a sharpshooter, but 34% is pretty much league average. I'd love a couple guys who shoot 38-39%, but even a trio of guys around 35% would make us more competitive than we've been the last couple years. (Again, D1 average = 17-14, mid-pack in conference in 2015-2016.)

By way of comparison, pulling up those old stats got me curious about Pecora. It's well-documented that he was in love with combo guards who would create their own shot off the dribble -- aka the opposite of dead-eye spot-up shooters -- and would try to surround them with athletic forwards to attack the glass.

His record here is documented above, but his Hofstra teams were just as rough! Apart from that little run with Stokes and Agudio -- and his only good stretch-4, Kieza -- Pecora's teams go 29%, 32%, 33%, 33%, 31%, 32%. Whether from system, personnel or both, Tom Pecora teams are bad shooting teams almost by design!

No excuses, we are what we are -- and currently, we're a team that shoots 26% on threes. But I don't think that's simply a by-product of Neubauer's approach to offense and recruiting, the way it was with Pecora. Raut, Hicks and Slanina all have looked to fit the bill. (Note that Nych Smith is hitting 45.5% at Winthrop, so far.) Of his 10 EKU teams, 8 shot between 35% and 40% from deep, with another at 34.8%.

If it were simply a matter of supply, there's no reason we shouldn't be able to be near the D1 average. The shooters are out there to make this work -- and may even be on the roster already. As drunkle pointed out... we're 37% in our last two. You'd expect Chartouny to regress toward the mean. As short-handed as we are, I don't expect many "W's" the rest of the way, but if he and Evans join Hicks and Raut on the right side of 34% in the coming weeks (reasonable possibility), it won't be because of our shooting.

20 games left this season to see who those guys really are.
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« Reply #51 on: December 01, 2017, 05:39:34 pm »

Macro stats tell a lot but of course, can also be deceiving. If a player hits 7-7 from 3 in a 20 point blowout win but then goes 0-7 in a conference game, the macro numbers are not entirely telling the story. I think with this team its very hard to gauge.
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« Reply #52 on: December 01, 2017, 05:55:26 pm »

I haven't followed all the data in this thread. But what I saw and recall is that Marcus Stout was a clutch three point shooter.

And I think next year is when Estwick finally achieves his potential. 
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« Reply #53 on: December 01, 2017, 06:25:35 pm »

I think part of it may be the speed of the game especially for Freshmen Raut, our injured players who lost last season, etc. Hopefully, as they get more playing time, the game will slow down for them and their shooting % goes up as a result. Just my opinion on a possible explanation.
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« Reply #54 on: December 01, 2017, 07:23:32 pm »

Do you think these guys are not shooting well because they are leg weary from the animal defense? Its possible.

Leg weary may be part of it.  I also think it has something to do with time and practice.  IMO, you can become a better shooter by practicing over and over again.  Professional BB players are solely focused on their game and can devote more time to practice than college players.  That makes a pro a better shooter.  College players have ready access to a gym, which makes them better than high school players.  I am guessing that our practices focus more on defense, especially the press, than on offense.  How many guys want to hang around after a practice and shoot hundreds of balls?  Not many.  Some players, such as Anderson, have improved from one year to the next.  Hard work in the off-season eventually pays off as a junior and senior.  I think Anderson and Sengfelder would help the shooting percentages had they stayed.  Our problem seems to be that we and other schools are losing the benefit of fully matured players that graduate in three years.  Maybe the goal should be to get these guys to mature earlier.  I sure hope the two red shirt transfers are working on their game so that they are ready when called upon.         
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« Reply #55 on: December 01, 2017, 08:14:06 pm »

Macro stats tell a lot but of course, can also be deceiving. If a player hits 7-7 from 3 in a 20 point blowout win but then goes 0-7 in a conference game, the macro numbers are not entirely telling the story. I think with this team its very hard to gauge.

Which is why this thread is premature. Declaring these guys canít shoot makes no sense given individual numbers and games played. 
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« Reply #56 on: December 01, 2017, 09:02:24 pm »

Leg weary may be part of it. 
         

possible but it should not be the case   they certainly appeared leg weary on D late in the last game     JN has found zone religion and, while effective, seems to be less taxing than the man to man he employed almost exclusively in his first season and a half

Willie Cruz departure could be a factor    he was highly regarded and is no longer here
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« Reply #57 on: December 01, 2017, 10:44:15 pm »

Willie Cruz departure could be a factor    he was highly regarded and is no longer here

The same was said when Frank Martin left.
The same was said when Ray Martin left.
The same was said when Van Macon left.
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« Reply #58 on: December 01, 2017, 11:37:47 pm »

The same was said when Frank Martin left.
The same was said when Ray Martin left.
The same was said when Van Macon left.

Even more funny is that some here at some point questioned whether Willie Cruz could be somewhat to blame for the injuries that occurred last year or the previous year, I forget. Might have been the previous year b/c I think it involved Canty.
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« Reply #59 on: December 01, 2017, 11:42:03 pm »

The same was said when Frank Martin left.
The same was said when Ray Martin left.
The same was said when Van Macon left.


and weren't they valid observations ?   
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