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Harvard @ Fordham Pregame/In-game 12/6/17 7PM


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Author Topic: Harvard @ Fordham Pregame/In-game 12/6/17 7PM  (Read 4207 times)
PeterMartin08
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« Reply #30 on: December 06, 2017, 10:34:20 am »

Evans had numerous in rhythm open threes and literally missed them all.  Heís taken the ball to the basket and not finished most of the time.  His offensive woes have nothing to do with the system.  Very concerning he looks over matched right now.  Maybe he adjusts as the season goes on but other than the ets game where he got to the line 10 times his offense has been atrocious.

but...as 85, pointed out, nice haircut - and that is just as important for social media purposes in 2018.

I'm confident he will turn it around, three more shares of tre.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #31 on: December 06, 2017, 10:37:40 am »

Kind of an ironic first name.

I tend to agree that he simply has to snap out of it at some point but it is a bit mind boggling. 0-17. You figure you might just get a friendly rim and bounce on one of them. I like many, are expecting some breakout game where he goes 8-10 and hits 5 free throws...we shall see.
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« Reply #32 on: December 06, 2017, 10:50:20 am »

In my opinion the way you get him to snap out of his shooting funk, is let him freelance a bit. Stop the forced, flat footed 3's. Let him take it to hoop a couple of times and let him only take a 3 as it naturally flows in the game. These standing on the arc threes at the end of the shot clock are never going in.

They are encouraged to take the 3 though. That's the shot they're told to take.
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« Reply #33 on: December 06, 2017, 11:00:23 am »

Evans had numerous in rhythm open threes and literally missed them all.  Heís taken the ball to the basket and not finished most of the time.  His offensive woes have nothing to do with the system.  Very concerning he looks over matched right now.  Maybe he adjusts as the season goes on but other than the ets game where he got to the line 10 times his offense has been atrocious.

Atrocious shooting, but he does have a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio.  So does Hicks (invoking the equal time clause)
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« Reply #34 on: December 06, 2017, 11:22:13 am »

In my opinion the way you get him to snap out of his shooting funk, is let him freelance a bit. Stop the forced, flat footed 3's. Let him take it to hoop a couple of times and let him only take a 3 as it naturally flows in the game. These standing on the arc threes at the end of the shot clock are never going in.

His usage rate (estimate of % of team's plays used while on the floor) was way down last game.  Around 8%, whereas in the prior game it was high, in the mid-20s, and he got to the line.  He definitely seemed tentative.

When UNC played Michigan, Roy Williams talked about Michigan's offensive efficiency and low tempo.  Michigan is 349th in tempo but have the 38th highest offensive efficiency.  Of course Coach JN worked under Beilein.  Williams said it is not so much that Michigan milks the clock just to shoot at the last second, but that they hunt for a good shot and don't settle (Michigan promptly went out and, after scoring well early going down low to Wagner, started chucking and missing 3s as the Heels upped the tempo).    But that's true.  The point shouldn't be simply to milk the clock, absent a late lead.  You want to be deliberate, but take the efficient shot that presents itself.

We have actually been pretty good at 2 point FG%.  102nd in Div I.  And that includes against Florida State, which has a good 2 point % defense. Toss out that game and we'd be at 54.9%, or 60th.  We have been above 50% from 2 against everyone except LIU (surprisingly) and Florida State.

We were pretty effective driving or going inside last game.  It may be that we are using the 3 too late and not in rhythm.

Just as an aside, I think as noted in the game thread there were a couple of times Slanina got it down low and couldn't get a handle or too far under.  These happened on drives, one by Chartouny, where it looked like the driver should have shot and not tried a close in pass to a big.  But we seemed to get more aggressive late and our guards made some layups.  After halftime we made 2 3 point jumpers (JC and PS), 2 mid range jumpers (PS and PH), and 9 layups (1 PS, 1 PH, 1 CH, 3 WT, 3 JC).  One layup (and 1) by JC was off a steal.  One other layup (and 1) by JC was off a D rebound and coast to coast.  WT also had a d rebound and coast to coast.  

One conundrum is our tempo is low for the defense we play.  Most teams that force high turnovers have high tempo games.  West Virginia a classic example.  We really can't afford to get it up to that speed.

You can be deliberate and have good offensive efficiency.  Michigan as aforesaid. Virginia is dead last in tempo and 39th in efficiency.  Saint Mary's is 346th in tempo and 4th in offensive efficiency.  Notre Dame is 334th in tempo and 10th in efficiency.  Of course most of those teams shoot the 3 well.  Michigan doesn't.  They are at 32.5% against Division I teams.  We've shot worse than that but don't think we really should.  It is what it is, but you may have a point and things might pick up but for the forced shots at the end of the clock.  And god the shot clock violations!

And those low tempo/high efficiency teams usually aren't forcing high turnovers. St. Mary's is low in that metric, Notre Dame and Michigan middling.  Virginia is decent, ranked in the 60s.  But their high defensive rank (#1 per kenpom), is not from forcing turnovers but from the pack-line forcing bad shots.    

A closer match would be a team like Tennessee.  They are 16th in forced turnover%, 36th in offensive efficiency, 128th in tempo.  They shoot lights out from 3, and pretty badly from 2, at 47.2%.  Kansas State actually matches up with our style, as they are at 17th in forced TOV%, and 318th in tempo.  Their 2% is roughly same as ours (sans the Florida State game), but they are at 39% from 3.

Again, this is overkill early in the season.  It is possible to have a hectic D, slow-tempo yet effective offense.  But it is fairly rare.  And we haven't shown we can hit the 3.  And that's an understatement.

Given our 3 volume and the number of attempts, we are 300 in eFG%.  Bad.  La salle is at 291.  Some other semi-decent teams are around us.  Two of the worst are on our schedule.  saint louis is 346th with an eFG% of 42%. Doesn't look like that Virginia Tech win has carried over, and interestingly, Virginia Tech is first in eFG% and has won every other game.  Rutgers is 349th in eFG% at 40.8%.  Ooof.  But their last 3 games have been against Michigan State (#1 in lowest opponent eFG%, and they just completely shutdown UNC's offense as well), Florida St (#15 in opp eFG%) and Minnesota (#56).

Harvard's tempo is 84th.  Similar to Tulane at 82nd.  Their opponent eFG% is 225th at 52.4%.  Their opponent 3 point % is 171st at 34.8%.  Their 2 point % yielded is 245th at 52.6%.  They are 58th in opponent 3 point rate as a % of shots taken.  They are 294th in opponent 2 point FG rate.   So that's ammo for those who say we should take them more inside.  It's been our relative strength and their relative weakness    


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« Reply #35 on: December 06, 2017, 11:27:41 am »

They are encouraged to take the 3 though. That's the shot they're told to take.

I know but when 17 in a row don't go down, common sense has to take over.  I think we saw Chartouny take the bull by the horns and go back to his old game.

It is mind boggling that there are so many misses from 3. I understand and to a point agree, that the offensive scheme works to an extent because we are getting a lot of trips where guys do get open looks from 3. So its either change it up or go with the law of averages that these are good solid recruits and eventually this incredible run of poor shooting simply has to end. I get it....but it's tough to watch right now..
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« Reply #36 on: December 06, 2017, 11:34:51 am »

Evans had numerous in rhythm open threes and literally missed them all.  Heís taken the ball to the basket and not finished most of the time.  His offensive woes have nothing to do with the system.  Very concerning he looks over matched right now.  Maybe he adjusts as the season goes on but other than the ets game where he got to the line 10 times his offense has been atrocious.

At one point against Manhattan he went in for a layup, and it looked like he was going to almost try to slam it, as he cradled it, but Paulicap came from the weak side and blocked it.  There he just seemed unaware weak-side help was coming.  Missing open 3s may just mean it's snowballed and rattled. 0-17 doesn't make sense given his JC numbers.
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« Reply #37 on: December 06, 2017, 12:20:49 pm »

We are way overthinking small sample sizes. I agree some of the numbers are mind boggling but let's see where we net out.
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« Reply #38 on: December 06, 2017, 12:48:28 pm »

We are way overthinking small sample sizes. I agree some of the numbers are mind boggling but let's see where we net out.

Agreed.  Marcus Stout and Brenton Butler both had longer futility streaks, and maybe Harris too, I think Butler has the record, around 30 clanks in a row.
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« Reply #39 on: December 06, 2017, 01:03:24 pm »

We are next to dead last in the entire country in 3 point shooting percentage.  Its time to take note, especially in an offense that revolves around the 3.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/152/p8

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« Reply #40 on: December 06, 2017, 01:23:29 pm »

We are way overthinking small sample sizes. I agree some of the numbers are mind boggling but let's see where we net out.

Agreed. Talk about on January 6, not December 6. Lets go.
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Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something. - Moneyball
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« Reply #41 on: December 06, 2017, 01:52:59 pm »

We are next to dead last in the entire country in 3 point shooting percentage.  Its time to take note, especially in an offense that revolves around the 3.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/152/p8

And it's really not location, either. Even if you take out the two Jamaica games (which were played under bad lighting conditions and in which we went 9 for 53 (17%) from the 3-pt line), we're still only shooting the three at a 28.6% clip (which would move us from 349th to 330th) at home...
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« Reply #42 on: December 06, 2017, 02:27:38 pm »

Agreed. Talk about on January 6, not December 6. Lets go.

Love the attitude. Tre, Joe, Havsa, Pekarek, and everyone else should forget everything that has happened thus far, shoot the ball with confidence like they have all their life, and knock down some kill shots tonight.

Confidence can change on a dime. You saw flashes of the confidence coming back vs. Maine. Why not tonight for the breakout?
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« Reply #43 on: December 06, 2017, 04:55:47 pm »

Love the attitude. Tre, Joe, Havsa, Pekarek, and everyone else should forget everything that has happened thus far, shoot the ball with confidence like they have all their life, and knock down some kill shots tonight.

Confidence can change on a dime. You saw flashes of the confidence coming back vs. Maine. Why not tonight for the breakout?


Looking at the play by play against Maine, somehow I get thirty 3 attempts.  I may have miscounted but in any event: 11 were with 20 seconds or more elapsed on shot clock.  We shot 1-11 on those. 

Only 3 were with 25 or more seconds gone on the clock.  Evans shot one with 3 seconds gone off a JC steal, but missed one with 25 seconds gone and one in OT with 29 seconds gone.  Indeed Hicks missed 3 with 20 seconds or more gone (0-5 overall), Evans 2 (0-3 overall) and Raut 2 (1-6 overall).  And WT missed 1 with 27 seconds gone.  And 3 of these 20-second elapsed misses were the first 3 shots of overtime.  We also had a 30 second violation.

It doesn't seem like we were shot all that many truly desperation 3s.  But it was more frequent that, later in the clock, after 20 seconds up, the ball ended up in the hands of guys playing their 1st few weeks of Division I ball, Hicks, Evans and Raut. After the primary targets (Tavares, Chartouny and Slanina) have been bottled up by the D.  Now I'm thinking Dr. Strangelove's Major Kong: "Goddamnit Goldie, I thought you said you could get me to the primary!"

So Evans took a quick 3 and 2 late 3s for his 3 shots.  Yeah, that doesn't seem optimal, but overall probably not the issue.  He did have 5 boards and no TOs.
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« Reply #44 on: December 06, 2017, 05:14:18 pm »

We are next to dead last in the entire country in 3 point shooting percentage.  Its time to take note, especially in an offense that revolves around the 3.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/152/p8


This is very concerning. But, one caveat, one of our guys could go off just one game, and I'm sure we would be propelled to a much higher ranking. But that of course is a big IF. Because no one has shown the capability, this year, at least to be that lights out offensive guy. Time will tell.
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« Reply #45 on: December 06, 2017, 07:05:29 pm »

Hopefully late arriving crowd.  World's a nicer place when your shots drop!  Go Rams
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« Reply #46 on: December 06, 2017, 07:16:47 pm »

Bad start. First offensive possession = turnover. First rebound is an offensive one for opponent. First foul shot is a miss.

GO RAMS.
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« Reply #47 on: December 06, 2017, 07:39:18 pm »

Up 12, then we stopped scoring. Come on Rams. Close out the half back up in double figures. 
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« Reply #48 on: December 06, 2017, 07:46:15 pm »

Terrible finish to the half. We need to get better or this will be a loss. We are a lot more talented them.

GO RAMS.
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« Reply #49 on: December 06, 2017, 08:26:55 pm »

The 3 futility is like nothing I've ever seen.
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« Reply #50 on: December 06, 2017, 08:31:56 pm »

Anyone else lose livestream at 7:38 left?   Long down time.
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« Reply #51 on: December 06, 2017, 08:32:27 pm »

Tre finally hit a tre.

Jeff is wearing a brown jacket with gray pants. Nice .
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« Reply #52 on: December 06, 2017, 08:33:37 pm »

Thank goodness for taveras. And the D is rock solid cant deny that.
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« Reply #53 on: December 06, 2017, 08:34:06 pm »

Thank goodness for taveras. And the D is rock solid cant deny that.

Tavares.

Was that Evansí first 3 of the year?
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« Reply #54 on: December 06, 2017, 08:38:10 pm »

Great defense, outstanding D
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« Reply #55 on: December 06, 2017, 08:44:25 pm »

Shot clock violation by Havsa,  utterly mind boggling
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« Reply #56 on: December 06, 2017, 08:47:00 pm »

Evans epicly sucks. You can not be serious there....are you insane?
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« Reply #57 on: December 06, 2017, 08:48:35 pm »

I give up
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« Reply #58 on: December 06, 2017, 08:48:47 pm »

just unbelievable.

these are scholarship athletes.

can't shoot. 2 digit basketball IQs.

they stink and their only talent is getting the other team to play down to their level of abject incompetence.
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« Reply #59 on: December 06, 2017, 08:49:02 pm »

The nuclear clock is coming
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